New car prices didn’t spike after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs in the spring, as some experts and dealers projected.

But prices on many models are now pushing notably higher — and analysts said carmakers recouping Trump's higher import costs is a key factor.

Consider a recent analysis that found automakers are implementing more aggressive price increases on 2026 model-year vehicles compared to when 2025s were hitting dealership lots last year.

Cloud Theory, which tracks car inventory on dealer websites across the country, found the average marketed price increase on 2026 models was nearly $2,000, compared to an approximately $400 uptick during last year's model year changeover. This year, 23 models have at least a $2,000 price hike; last year there were just nine.

“What I think is different this year is you have a lot of cost increases that are $1,000 or $1,500 or more, $2,000 or more," said Rick Wainschel, Cloud Theory's vice president of data and analytics, whose analysis looked at 2026 models with at least 2,000 vehicles in inventory.

"I think that’s a big change and a big shift that’s occurred, and it’s hard to point to any other catalyst for that (except for) tariff costs that the OEMs have had to absorb for the last eight months, and will likely have to absorb going forward," he said.

Any increase comes on top of average car prices that were already hovering around $50,000. Pair that with stubbornly high interest rates, and the average monthly car payment is now $766, according to Edmunds.com Inc., up more than 3% from a year ago. A record share of subprime borrowers has been falling behind on their auto loans this fall.

Yet the huge car sticker price increases tied to tariffs — which analysts originally warned might tally anywhere from an extra $5,000 to $15,000 per vehicle — haven't come to pass.

Among the reasons: competitive pressures between rival automakers, concern over blowback from Trump, large pre-tariff vehicle inventories that gave companies a lag time before pricing adjustments were needed, as well as policy adjustments that reduced the pain of the tariffs themselves.

Automakers opted to absorb many of the extra costs in the near term.

But if you're shopping for a new car right now or plan to in the coming months, experts said it is likely tariffs will cost you in one way or another, even if it's tough to discern exactly how. Automakers haven't been eager to publicly disclose any connection between tariffs and their pricing adjustments.

Vehicle destination charges — those mandatory fees for transporting the car to the dealership — are rising, revealing one area where automakers "might be trying to make up a little bit of the costs," said Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox Automotive Inc.

There are also signs of automakers pulling features out of certain models in a bid to trim costs while holding the same sticker price, a phenomenon known as shrinkflation. And then there are indications of carmakers offsetting their tariff costs with higher 2026 model-year MSRPs.

"Automakers really held their prices throughout the '25 model year, and we're starting to see a bit (of an impact) in '26," said Stephanie Brinley, an auto analyst with S&P Global Mobility. "But it's being wrapped up in different ways, so it's very difficult to suss out."

Car companies often adjust pricing on new model-year vehicles, whether due to minor repackaging of features and trim levels, or full overhauls that include new technology and freshened sheet metal. Brinley said that means there's no clear way for consumers to figure out where those extra tariff costs might've been tacked on.

Keating agrees the tariff impacts have been hard to pin down. Average car prices have been rising steadily much of this year — with September reaching an all-time high above $50,000 — but she said some of that uptick would have been expected anyway because of normal inflation.

The analyst now feels confident those initial shocking projections of price hikes in the 10% to 15% range aren't going to happen: "The market just won't bear it," she said.

Automakers appear to be settling into their new normal under Trump. They've secured at least some tariff relief on parts and vehicles imported from certain countries, while simultaneously feeling the benefits of Trump's moves to loosen federal vehicle emissions and fuel economy standards.

A September J.P. Morgan report estimated combined tariff costs on vehicles and parts will amount to $41 billion in the first year, rising to $45 billion in year two and $52 billion in year three.

The bank expects automakers and consumers to ultimately share the burden equally, which could lead to a 3% increase in new vehicle prices: "This will hit consumers hard," the report said, "especially as many are already struggling to afford new vehicles."

Wainschel, the Cloud Theory analyst, said average prices listed on dealer websites have only increased a few hundred dollars per vehicle since the tariffs took effect in early April. But that's because automakers have pushed an increasing number of affordable models and trims into the market, which has helped hold the overall average price down.

If the current mix of vehicle types listed for sale was the same as it was back in April, Wainschel said, average prices would, in fact, look approximately $1,300 higher now: “So there are some things that are masking the increases that are taking place, the segment mix being a big part of it."

Brendan Harrington, president of Autobahn Fort Worth in Texas, which sells Porsche, BMW, Mini, Volvo, Volkswagen, Jaguar and Land Rover brands, said big price hikes didn't occur early on as companies fretted over losing market share.

But now, carmakers are beginning to make larger changes in response to tariffs, he said, including trimming back slower-selling models and increasing MSRPs where they can. He said Porsche and Land Rover are two examples of brands that have upped prices in response to tariffs.

And carmakers are also passing through higher destination charges, he said — increases that are adding $200 to $300 to the cost of a car. Tariffs also are contributing to steadily rising costs for Harrington's parts and service departments.

"Until now, every OEM has really tried to hold the line," he said. "But we are seeing prices now come up."

(Detroit News Staff Writer Grant Schwab contributed.)

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