SEATTLE — Smile if you wish, but don't celebrate yet.

The most significant event regarding the potential return of the Sonics seems imminent, but I'd pump the brakes on a party.

On Monday ESPN reported that NBA owners will vote next week to explore expansion to Las Vegas and Seattle. No other city is on the table, and it's unlikely news would have leaked if league commissioner Adam Silver didn't think the owners would provide at least 23 of the 30 votes necessary to start the bidding process.

It's a monumental step forward — one that has local and national pundits teeming with optimism. But are you sold? Or has this 18-year tease made you numb to hopeful headlines?

Here's what I'd say: For the first time since I got here in 2015, it looks like there is a probable chance the Sonics will return within the next five years. Hours after Shams Charania broke the news of the impending vote, his ESPN colleague, Brian Windhorst, was on the air giving Sonics fans permission to get excited while saying there will be bidders trying to get a team back in the Emerald City.

Windhorst is no baseless pundit. And this vote would signify tangible progress. But this isn't opening a new food stand at T-Mobile Park. This is a move requiring billions of dollars that would ultimately require the approval of a couple dozen billionaire owners. The alley-oop may be on the verge of being thrown, but this isn't a slam dunk.

For one, even if Silver believes the votes are there to explore expansion, that doesn't mean everyone on the league's Board of Governors wants to see this happen. New York Knicks owner James Dolan has been particularly open about his reluctance for more teams in recent years, and his influence isn't small. Starting negotiations is one thing. Finishing them another.

More significant, there is a lot of money required to get a team back here. The Celtics sold for $6 billion recently. The Lakers sold for $10 billion. These valuations significantly drove up the estimated expansion fee, which now sits between $7 billion-$10 billion. A few years ago it might have been close to half of that. And given the scarcity of people with that kind of dough — along with new tax concerns in Washington for said people that don't exist in Nevada — securing a new primary owner isn't a given.

Also, as Seattle Times sports writer Tim Booth pointed out recently, the NBA requires minority owners to have a minimum 1% stake in a team — meaning they would have to fork over a minimum of $70 million if the estimated expansion fee is accurate. That's doable for some, but given how potential minority owners could also be interested in buying a part of the Seahawks, you wonder if some might have to choose one over another.

These aren't meant to be stink bombs thrown into Monday's metaphorical parade in Seattle. A lot of people are pumped, and for good reason. If the bidders come, these expansion fees serve as a means to put a ton of money into the rest of the owners' hands immediately (if Vegas and Seattle go for $8 billion each that would make each owner $500 million richer). The Board of Governors has an incentive to get this done, and Vegas and Seattle are viable markets.

As I said, the reality of the Sonics returning has moved from possible to probable, but let's all proceed cautiously with our emotions.

Some might be tempted to liken this development to the situation in 2013, when it appeared the Kings were going to move from Sacramento, Calif., to Seattle and become the Sonics. There are a couple of key differences, though. One is that there is a venue in place in the form of Climate Pledge Arena — probably the biggest hurdle that needed clearing in 2013. The second is that then-commissioner David Stern actively nixed the move due to Sacramento's commitment to keeping its team. In this case, Silver seems fully on board with expansion.

If the Sonics do return — and it's a possibility it could be as early as 2028 — Monday will be remembered as one of the more significant news days toward that end. The glee filling up local fans' guts is not without justification.

But there are still some obstacles. It could still get messy. And after all these years, this town has earned the right to be skeptical.

I'd say the odds are in Seattle's favor right now. That said … odd things happen.

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