How Duke basketball can win an NCAA Tournament title. Hint: It's a tough road

Chip Alexander, The News & Observer on Mar 17, 2026

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Was is it about Duke and Indy?

Duke has won three of its five NCAA basketball championships in Indianapolis, making it a historic landing spot for the Blue Devils in a Final Four.

But to get to Indy this year for the 2026 Final Four, the Devils will have to traverse an NCAA East Region bracket that’s ridiculously stacked, one with a trio of Hall of Fame coaches and a load of NBA-worthy talent.

The Blue Devils are 32-2, ranked first in the polls and made the No. 1 overall national seed for the NCAAs. The ACC champions also be without starting guard Caleb Foster, whose foot fracture could keep him out most or all of the NCAA Tournament, although a return at some point has not been ruled out.

Awaiting the Blue Devils could be Tom Izzo and Michigan State, Rick Pitino and St. John’s, or Bill Self and Kansas — the Hall of Famers. Or Connecticut, whose coach, the mercurial Danny Hurley, could one day find his way into the basketball hall after UConn’s NCAA success.

The Blue Devils have not played for an NCAA title since 2015, when Duke edged Wisconsin, 68-63, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy. Duke’s other championship wins in Indy came in 1991, Mike Krzyzewski’s first NCAA title, and 2010, when Butler’s Gordon Hayward nearly won it on a long, last-gasp buzzer beater.

The Blue Devils came within a step of playing for another last year in San Antonio, only to be denied by Houston in the national semifinals. They’d like to take the next step in a few weeks, but the path to Indy starts with a game Thursday against 16th seeded Siena, made a 26.5-point underdog.

“We’re going to approach every game the same way and hope to learn from every game,” Duke’s Dame Sarr said. “It’s always about us and not who we play. Just keep having the same winning metality.

“We know it’s win or go home, but the approach is the same, prepare the same way and go out and compete with the same will.”

Duke should get past the Saints, the MAAC champs. But after that?

Here’s a look at what Duke could encounter: Second-round test: Ohio State or TCU

Teams like to avoid the 8-vs-9 game because the winner can quickly be a loser, having to next face the No. 1 seed in the second round. That’s probably the case with No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 TCU in the East Region.

Ohio State (21-12) is playing its best basketball of the season, beating Purdue and shooting better than 40% on their 3s of late. TCU has a win over Florida, last year’s NCAA champion and also beat Iowa State and Texas Tech, one of two teams to beat Duke. Back to Capital One Arena

The Devils lined up the late-season game with Michigan in Washington D.C., with just this in mind: NCAA regional games at Capital One Arena. Duke also won the big showdown game, moving to No. 1 in the AP poll.

The Sweet 16 game for Duke, if it keeps winning, could be against Kansas, the No. 4 seed. That would be a rematch of the Nov. 18 game in New York that the Blue Devils won, 78-66, in the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden.

The Blue Devils also could face a healthy Darryn Peterson, the dynamic freshman who missed 11 games this season with severe cramping issues and hamstring injuries. Peterson, who could be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, did not play in the game in New York.

An Elite Eight game against No. 3 seed Michigan State and Izzo also would be another rematch. Duke went to MSU in early December and won, 66-60, behind Cam Boozer’s 18 points and 15 rebounds.

The Devils, who have won 11 of their past 13 games overall against MSU, and Spartans have a rich NCAA history. They last played in 2022, Duke surging in the second half to take an 85-76 second-round win — in Greenville.

The Devils had Caleb Foster in the December game and matched him at times against MSU’s Jeremy Fears Jr., who was 0-10 from the field in a 6-point loss.

The regional finals are always packed with tension as teams ache to get to the Final Four. This is where Duke and No. 2 seed UConn also could collide, matching Scheyer and Hurley, who led the Huskies to repeat NCAA titles in 2023 and 2024.

The Huskies reeled off 18 straight wins during the season before a couple of late-season duds. It’s a tough, balanced team. On to Indy

If Duke has made it through that basketball gauntlet, there are intriguing possible matchups in the semifinals.

Houston again in the Final Four? Or Florida, in yet another rematch — Duke topped the Gators, 67-66, in the ACC/SEC Challenge game in December. What about another Duke-Carolina game? The Tar Heels are seeded sixth in the South, and reaching the Final Four without Caleb Wilson seems a big reach, but N.C. State proved in 2024 that anything is possible in March. Cutting down the nets

Arizona has been a trendy pick to win it all this season. But given the game in Washington, and the national audience of 4.3 million it attracted, it would not be a surprise to see Duke and Michigan go at it again.

The Blue Devils made the right plays at the right times to win. Playing for a national championship is another animal.

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