LAS VEGAS — It would be easy to point to the lack of early upsets in recent NCAA Tournaments and conclude that revenue sharing and NIL have ruined the Cinderella aspect that made the event so special.

The rich getting richer and the ability of the blue bloods and power conference teams to not only pay highly-prized recruits more than anyone else, but to also lure away the rare player that does excel at a smaller school, has absolutely widened the gap between the haves and have-nots.

Last year, no team seeded lower than third made the Elite Eight. The only double-digit seed to make it to the Sweet 16 was Arkansas, not exactly a little guy.

It’s a trend that also extends to the regular season.

Over the last four seasons, an average of 65 upsets occurred with schools from non-power conferences beating power-conference teams.

This season, it was down to 29.

Quite simply, the game has changed and there aren’t many signs the gap is going to narrow any time soon.

Numbers game

Just take a look at the first-round point spreads in this year’s tournament.

For the first time in 40 years, every No. 2 seed is at least a 20-point favorite over every No. 15 seed. It’s also the first time in at least 25 years that every No. 5 seed is favored by at least seven points over every No. 12 seed.

It’s very possible we see a continuation of last year’s trend that saw every top four seed advance from the first round.

The fact 17 of the 31 top seeds lost in their conference tournaments, eliminating some of the better mid-major teams that could have made life difficult on high-major foes in the first round, doesn’t help.

Like Yale, one of the best Ivy League teams in years that will play in the NIT after choosing not to foul up by three late in regulation and giving up a 3-pointer before losing in overtime.

Same thing with Navy, which won the Patriot League by six full games in the standings before getting upset in the league tournament. And Belmont, the class of the Missouri Valley all year. The list goes on.

The presence of those teams would have helped.

But none of this is to say the tournament is no longer fun. It’s still one of the greatest sporting events in the world.

It’s just going to be different, at least for awhile. There could be a future where some mid-majors start to figure out how to take advantage of keeping teams together for four years by finding the money to retain and reward their own good players, putting them on slightly more level ground against the blue bloods. Of course, that would also probably just accelerate the power conferences breaking off into their own tournament. But that’s all down the road.

Being thankful

For now, let’s appreciate what we do have.

First of all, the lack of early upsets does make for some incredible contests between great teams as the tournament progresses.

That is a good thing even if it means being treated to less drama on the first two days of the event.

And then there’s the overly optimistic view of the new era of class separation in the NCAA Tournament.

When we do get major upsets now, or even a Cinderella run, it will be that much more special.

The George Masons and Florida Atlantics of the world are no longer overcoming simple talent gaps or school budget disparities, but literal payroll gaps designed to make them lesser.

Those stories will be that much sweeter.

And there are some candidates this year.

Santa Clara, a program that hasn’t been to the tournament since Steve Nash was running the point, can score with anybody and they draw a very inconsistent Kentucky team in the first round.

VCU is probably more Ariel than Cinderella because they aren’t quite as much of an underdog and have made deep runs before, but the Rams are certainly still fighting an uphill battle from a budgetary standpoint.

They have won 16 of their last 17 games and have the right profile to make a run. The Rams also get to play a North Carolina team missing star Caleb Wilson.

Northern Iowa plays fantastic defense and Ben Jacobson always seems to win his first tournament game.

The problem for the Panthers is they drew underseeded St. John’s in the first round.

Akron might be the top team to watch in this category. The Zips are very good and would have been the story of the MAC if not for Miami-Ohio’s gaudy record.

To be absolutely clear, Akron is just plain and simply a better team than Miami-Ohio. Especially at this point of the season.

And the Zips draw a very good Texas Tech team, but one that is without it’s best player in J.T. Toppin. This is one to watch for sure.

Hope is not lost

High Point is another one to keep an eye on. The Panthers dominate possessions by forcing tons of turnovers and rarely giving the ball away themselves.

On the surface, it looks like a tough stylistic matchup to be going up against a team like Wisconsin that can control pace, but the Badgers aren’t great on the offensive boards and don’t really force turnovers.

One fun one to think about is Troy, who actually has the same amount of tournament wins as their high-major opponent, Nebraska.

Zero.

The Cornhuskers have struggled down the stretch, but still play elite defense and could suffocate the Trojans in what figures to be an absolute rock fight with Troy’s preference to play at a snail’s pace.

It would be wrong to completely count out a very good Troy team, though.

And hey, whoever wins will make history with the first NCAA Tournament win in program history.

Oh, and Hofstra gets a bump in their odds of pulling off a first-round upset after Alabama’s top outside shooter Aden Holloway was arrested on Monday morning in a drug bust.

So not all hope is lost for the underdogs in this tournament.

We just might have to be a bit more patient.

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