Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly will lead the November ballot to become Florida’s next governor — but with a massive fundraising split between the two, Democrats still face longshot odds to win back the governor’s mansion after nearly three decades of GOP control.

Jolly is a former Republican congressman who opposed Donald Trump and has since switched parties. He’s entering the general election largely untested statewide, after not facing a well-funded primary challenger and sweeping the primary with 62% support after most votes were counted.

Donalds, in contrast, is entering the head-to-head matchup with his electoral vulnerabilities already on display after months of attacks from the three Republicans running against him. A Republican congressman from Naples, Donalds is emerging from a primary cycle with a commanding 49% of the votes counted at the time of publishing after getting Trump’s endorsement last year.

Now, the future of Florida’s trajectory — either as a continued bastion of conservatism or Democratic-led state — hangs on how the two candidates sell themselves to voters over the next two-and-a-half months.

Democrats face a 1.5 million voter registration disadvantage after years of sedimentation of Republican power in the state, but they have reason to dream this year could change the tide: Trump’s approval ratings are hitting new lows and the party out of power typically over performs in midterm election years.

The likelihood that Democrats pull out an underdog victory, according to strategists, pollsters and political insiders, depends on two things: money and voter turnout.

“It’s improbable that Jolly wins, but it’s not impossible and when you look at an Excel spreadsheet, you can see a pathway for him, particularly the way that Democrats are performing with independents right now,” Democratic political consultant Steve Schale said. “The huge question mark is just whether or not the campaign can raise enough money to take advantage of that.”

Even Republicans admit they see Jolly as a strong opponent in a year where Democrats expect a boon of support.

“We have to have a candidate who can win the general, I’ve been saying for months I have concern over Byron Donalds in the match up,” Jay Collins, Florida’s Republican lieutenant governor and Donalds’ primary opponent, told the Herald/Times earlier this month. “David Jolly registers very well, he knows the talking points, he knows how to address things.”

But a Democratic win is still a longshot. Donalds has raised more than $110 million, largely through donations from billionaires and corporations to a political committee supporting his campaign. Jolly has less than a tenth of that. His campaign accounts sit at about $10 million, mostly from small-dollar donors.

The Democratic Governor’s Association, which has largely written Florida off in recent gubernatorial election cycles, could give Jolly a boost — if they see Florida as winnable.

“While this has been a contentious and sometimes very bizarre Republican primary, it’s clear that Republican voters are not entirely on board with Byron Donalds,” DGA senior campaign advisor Nichole Johnson told reporters last week. They haven’t invested any funds yet.

Donalds has already spent almost three times Jolly’s entire campaign account — $28 million according to AdImpact data obtained by POLITICO— on ads that promote his background, Trump’s endorsement and affordability plan and attack Jolly’s positions on LGBTQ+ issues.

That’s only the beginning.

Jolly plans to take advantage of the messy Republican primary cycle by adopting some of the attack lines Donalds’ opponents have used. That includes trying to use Donalds’ massive fundraising haul against him, according to Miami-based Democratic pollster and strategist Fernand Amandi, who’s working on Jolly’s campaign.

“One of the things that [his Republican opponents] have done a very effective job in is pointing out the corrupt component behind Byron Donalds, whether it’s special interest dollars or concessions he’s made to certain industries or even certain individuals, I think you’re gonna continue to see that,” Amandi said.

But Jolly’s ability to make that case to voters will largely depend on whether he has enough money to communicate it through advertising. Donalds’ campaign has said his funders don’t impact his positions.

“Byron is beholden to no one but the people of Florida,” said Gates McGavick, a spokesperson for Donalds’ campaign.

Now, in the head-to-head, Republicans say they plan to run on Florida’s legislative legacy, and frame Jolly as pitching nothing more than an oppositional message against Trump.

“Jolly got Trump derangement syndrome, left the Congress, went to MSNBC and just basically complained all the time,” Miami-Dade Republican Party Chairman Kevin Cooper.

“The case we’re going to make is that we’re offering solutions. Now you have the right to agree or disagree with the solutions, that’s fine, but we’re offering solutions. They’re offering kind of a one-dimensional, boring, flat, ‘Oh yeah, we’re anti-Trump,’” he added.

Amandi pushed back on that idea, saying that Jolly was “one of the first candidates in the country to focus on the cost of living crisis as the centerpiece issue.”

Donalds’ campaign has indicated plans to describe Jolly to voters as a leftist, despite his conservative bona fides and skepticism of his candidacy from progressives in the party.

“Byron Donalds will protect Florida children. David Jolly will put radical left politics first,” said Ryan Smith, chairman of Friends of Byron Donalds PAC, in announcing an ad campaign highlighting Jolly’s statements about LGBTQ+ rights.

It’s a similar strategy to the one Trump used in his 2024 presidential campaign: aggressively attacking Democrats’ support for LGBTQ+ people, and specifically for transgender youth. An ad Donalds’ campaign committee launched last week accusing him of being “radical on the trans agenda” has been viewed at least 18 million times, according to YouTube.

Jolly responded at a campaign event, saying he became an advocate of the LGBTQ+ community two decades ago, as a “bit of a Republican libertarian,” and saying that “leadership calls for ending this ugly, despicable era in Florida history where we have broken each other and told each other to hate each other.”

That clip received thousands of views on social media — nowhere near the millions of views on the Donalds-funded ad.

“The fundamental question about how close the race is in November is going to come down to just whether or not David’s able to communicate or not,” Schale, the Democratic political consultant, said. “With money.”

The other key factor deciding Democrats’ chances of winning back the governor’s mansion with Jolly in November will depend on his ability to drive out both voters in the Democratic base, and independents and Republicans willing to vote for him.

Republicans have 12% more registered voters than Democrats, but that doesn’t mean they’ll turn out to vote in November — especially if they’re not motivated by Donalds, or disillusioned by the Trump administration.

If Republicans’ turnout “advantage is 6% or 8% all of the sudden I think you have a really competitive” governor’s race, said University of North Florida pollster Sean Freeder.

“Turnout is really the name of the game going into November.”

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