Hurricane center tracking 1 Atlantic system with small chance to develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 15, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Saturday has just one system on its radar with only a slim chance to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, a tropical wave tagged Invest 94 was about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Limited development of this system is possible over the next day or two before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east of the Lesser Antilles,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it just a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Some long-term computer models, such as the Global Forecast System, or GFS, had this system potentially approaching Florida after moving over or just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, but if and when it makes it to Florida, it’s not forecast to be anything more than tropical moisture.

The NHC also dropped to 0% the chances a tropical wave already in the southern Caribbean could develop. It is forecast to bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain over portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.

The week was active in the tropics with the short-lived Tropical Storm Cristobal coming and going in less than 24 hours. It came near the 22nd anniversary of Hurricane Charley slamming into Florida, the beginning of one of the worst hurricane years in the state’s history.

So far the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has been slow with only three named systems — tropical storms Arthur and Bertha and Cristobal.

The next names on the list are Dolly and Edouard.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earier this month updated its seasonal forecast stating it expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season is just beginning, though, running between mid-August and mid-October.