Trump risks dragging out Iran war with debate over seizing Kharg Island
Published in News & Features
U.S. officials said the White House is sending more than 2,000 additional Marines to the Middle East as it weighs a plan to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub, a ground operation that would carry huge risks for President Donald Trump.
“I don’t want to do a ceasefire,” Trump said Friday at the White House.
Any effort to seize and hold Iran’s energy facilities would put U.S. troops in greater danger than they’ve been exposed to in the conflict, which has seen 13 U.S. fatalities to date. It would also add to the cost and scope of the conflict beyond an air campaign.
Just as charged would be the symbolism of American troops landing on Iranian soil and the accusation that Trump — who shot to popularity in part by criticizing the open-ended wars that dogged his predecessors — might be starting one of his own.
Trump’s consideration of a ground operation comes as frustration mounts in the United States, Europe and Persian Gulf over the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments.
Oil prices surged again Friday with global benchmark Brent ending the week above $112 a barrel, the highest since mid-2022. Prices rose after Bloomberg News reported Iranian officials were refusing to negotiate on the waterway while under attack from U.S. and Israeli forces and touched intraday highs following reports U.S. officials were preparing an option to deploy ground troops in Iran.
Global stocks extended their losses, with the U.S. equity benchmark falling steeply to end the weekly nearly 2% lower. Treasury yields climbed, as traders priced in a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve hike by October. Meanwhile gold saw its worst week in four decades.
Seizing Kharg Island “has tactical advantages, to be sure, but also likely high costs and no clear strategic endgame,” said Michael O’Hanlon, who specializes in defense strategy at the Brookings Institution think tank and previously advised the Pentagon and the CIA.
Deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit would have “substantial risk of casualties, and with no obvious next step as to how such an action really accelerates regime change or even Iran’s willingness to negotiate an end to hostilities.”
For the time being, people familiar with the matter said momentum is building among Trump’s advisers for a limited operation. A third the size of Manhattan, Kharg Island could be taken over quickly and serve as crucial leverage in the campaign to get Tehran to release its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has ruled out troops there for the time being — “I’m not putting troops anywhere,” he said earlier this week — but he has ordered Marines to head to the region. They include the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan, with more than 2,000 troops.
The administration is also sending the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which left its home port of San Diego on its way to the Middle East, according to another person familiar with the matter. Led by the USS Boxer, it has up to 2,500 Marines along with F-35B fighters.
One person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said the deployments are part of a broader multiweek strategy to reopen the strait amid concerns that elevated oil prices will drag on global growth.
Higher gas prices are also a challenge to Trump ahead of the midterm elections. Retail gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. have jumped to the highest levels since 2022, with California’s energy regulator already warning against price gouging as some gas stations are charging as much as $8 a gallon.
The Pentagon has asked for an additional $200 billion from Congress to pay for the war, further signaling that the administration is bracing for a more protracted conflict. The regime in Tehran isn’t close to falling and Iranian officials are coalescing around the remaining leaders, according to Western intelligence assessments and people familiar with the matter.
If the U.S. moves to seize Kharg Island, there is plenty of precedent. The U.S. raid in Venezuela to capture Nicolas Maduro saw U.S. troops get in and out quickly, without loss of life. Special forces teams have operated around the world in secret for decades — with the mission that captured Osama bin Laden among the most famous.
“I think that it is a possibility,” said John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser who later broke with the president, in an interview. “I don’t think anybody — certainly not Trump — is talking about a huge combat, armed invasion — infantry, armor, artillery — landing in division-size formations.”
The concern is that regardless of Trump’s intentions, the missions could expand like conflicts in the past from Vietnam and Afghanistan to Iraq. Those, too, started out as a small, limited campaigns, but turned into sprawling wars that bogged down the U.S. for years.
Trump sees a move to seize Kharg as a way to exert leverage over Iran. The big question is how long they would stay — and whether they’d be exposed to attack — if Iran doesn’t back down. It would also fan concerns even more among Republicans and some Democrats that Trump was violating a key campaign promise: no new foreign wars.
And while Trump retains strong support among his party, the involvement of ground troops could sour that goodwill. A Reuters/Ipsos survey said two-thirds of Americans think Trump will deploy ground troops, but 55% don’t support such a move. Just 7% would support a large-scale attack by the U.S.
Officials — including the president — are worried such a move could ultimately prove counterproductive to their energy goals. Some fear that a U.S. attempt to seize the island would be met by Iran destroying its own infrastructure there. Others think the move could trigger a sharp spike in oil prices, even as Trump’s administration scrambles for policies to lower them.
Trump has said he’s not afraid of getting embroiled in a fight with Iran. A White House official said he won’t broadcast his strategy and retains all options as commander in chief.
“The media here, not all of it, but much of it, wants you to think just 19 days into this conflict that we’re somehow spinning toward an endless abyss or a forever war or a quagmire,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday. “Nothing could be further from the truth.”
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(With assistance from Nancy Cook, Courtney Subramanian, Magdalena Del Valle and Justin Sink.)
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