NATO allies at odds over how to respond to Russia's threats

NATO allies are struggling to coordinate a response to Russian airspace violations, with partners in the defense alliance openly contradicting each other.

On Tuesday evening, Germany warned against the risks of shooting down Russian aircraft, while U.S. President Donald Trump almost simultaneously showed he’s open to a more aggressive stance, backed by Poland and Baltic states. On Monday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk threatened to shoot down aerial threats and stated there is “no room for discussion” about the policy.

The back and forth reveals worrying divisions within the alliance as Vladimir Putin tests its resolve. A series of incidents in which Russian aircraft have crossed into the airspace of NATO allies has sparked concern along its eastern flank and beyond.

Estonia this week called for emergency meetings at NATO and the United Nations Security Council after three Russian fighter jets spent 12 minutes in the Baltic country’s airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Friday. The incident occurred just weeks after Russian drones breached airspace in Poland and Romania.

Taken together, they increase pressure on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to formulate a convincing response. Without a clear plan of how to react, the alliance will struggle to maintain a credible deterrence.

But in contrast to partners, Germany is urging a cautious approach. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said NATO allies risked sleepwalking into Putin’s “escalation trap” by firing at Russian aircraft.

“Slapdash demands to shoot something out of the sky or do some great show of strength help less than anything else right now,” he said at a news conference in Berlin on Tuesday evening alongside Swedish counterpart Pål Jonson. “Level-headedness is not cowardice and not fear, but a responsibility towards your own country and towards peace in Europe.”

Other allies are demanding a more forceful posture to send a message to the Kremlin. Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkevics called on Tuesday for a “show of force” from NATO in response to Russian incursions.

“I think the rules of engagement need also to be upgraded in a way that if Russia continues, the opening of fire would be an alternative,” he said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

The latest event became public on Wednesday, when a military airplane transporting Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles suffered a GPS interruption while en route to the Baltic state of Lithuania. That followed the presence of several large drones on Monday evening, triggering a shutdown of Copenhagen airport.

GPS interruptions are relatively common in eastern Europe, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. A plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suffered a similar episode on its approach to Plovdiv airport in Bulgaria at the end of August, one of hundreds of similar incidents reported each year.

Trump added his weight to the debate during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday. When asked by a reporter if he backed NATO allies taking down Russian aircraft, he responded “Yes, I do.”

But the U.S. position is still murky. Trump declined to say whether the White House would support NATO if it engaged Russian planes over its airspace, saying it “depends on the circumstance” but that “we’re very strong toward NATO.”

And just hours before Trump’s comments, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back against the assertion by Poland’s Tusk that his country was prepared to down foreign aircraft that enter its territory. The NATO policy was to intercept foreign aircraft that aren’t attacking rather than fire at them, according to Rubio.

Earlier Tuesday, NATO issued a statement promising a “robust” response to the Russian incursions, saying it would use all options, including military, to defend itself — which is in line with Tusk’s position.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb urged allies “not to overreact but be firm enough, because the only thing Russia understands is power,” he told Bloomberg TV in an interview.

On the other side of the debate, the Kremlin is feeling the heat from Trump’s more vocal support for Ukraine. In a social media post on Tuesday, the U.S. president said he believed that Ukraine — with the support of the European Union — was positioned not only to fight back but to reclaim all the territory taken by Russia since its invasion in 2022 — and perhaps more.

“Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act,” Trump said a social media post.

Moscow pushed back, with Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying the country maintains its “resilience and stability.” The most important thing is that Trump is sticking to his decision to remain a bystander in the war with Ukraine, according to a person familiar with Kremlin discussions.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul welcomed the change in tone from Trump, telling Deutschlandfunk radio on Wednesday that the U.S. president is “drawing the correct conclusions” from his unsuccessful efforts to prod Putin toward peace.

For the NATO member, that means caution and not falling into the Kremlin’s trap.

“The calculation behind this is clear,” he said in remarks to the Handelsblatt newspaper. “First provoke NATO allies and then, in the event of an escalation, act completely surprised and discredit NATO.”

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—With assistance from Iain Rogers.