Even if U.S. materiel moves quickly, transport logistics will likely mean the aid “will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks,” according to analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.

“The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new U.S. aid,” the analysts said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces, seeking to benefit from the widening gap in ammunition supplies, have ratcheted up their firepower all along the front, and made marginal gains since capturing the eastern city of Avdiivka in February.

Kremlin troops are focusing on strategically key spots, such as the town of Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, as they currently out-gun Ukraine’s army in artillery on the battlefield 10-to-one.

“The Ukrainians have been seriously damaged and their armed forces are weaker than they would have been otherwise,” Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, wrote after the U.S. House vote. “At least now, however, with a major infusion of U.S. aid, the Ukrainians should be able to stabilize the line.”

In contrast with a year ago, when warmer weather brought with it hopes for a second summer offensive by well-armed Ukrainian forces, the failure of that campaign and dwindling assistance from allies have darkened the public mood.

“This is good news from the U.S. to bolster military morale, even before the aid is coming,” a Ukrainian artilleryman who identified himself only as Taras said before the congressional vote.

But had it arrived earlier, he added, “our losses might have been lower.”

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(With assistance from Volodymyr Verbianyi, Olesia Safronova, Natalia Drozdiak and Jennifer Jacobs.)

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