Sean Keeler: Broncos bet on Bo Nix's future at NFL trade deadline. Now he has to prove Sean Payton right.

Sean Keeler, The Denver Post on Nov 15, 2026

Published in Football

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DENVER — Bo Nix was the biggest loser of Denver’s dud of an NFL trade deadline. But would you believe the Broncos QB might wind up being one of the biggest winners, too?

For this season, the Broncos offense could’ve absolutely used upgrades at running back (think the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor), at tight end (think the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert, or, if you want the pipe dream, the Cardinals’ Trey McBride, a Fort Morgan native) or at guard (the Colts’ Quenton Nelson).

In the end, Nelson was shipped to Seattle for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-rounder. Taylor, Goedert and McBride didn’t wind up going anywhere.

Even the Daiyan Henley deal, which was more or less for depth anyway, got called off — which only underscored what a hypocrite Jim Harbaugh is when things don’t go his way.

But here’s where Nix could get ahead in the long-term, even if his offense didn’t get that short-term bump Broncos Country was hoping for:

Every potential seller, including Indianapolis, was clearly looking for multiple draft picks in order to offload veteran talent. The Broncos weren’t comfortable with multiple picks as an asking price, even though the team’s in a Super Bowl window right here, right now.

To hear the draftniks tell it, there’s at least one good reason not to give up draft picks in bulk. And that’s because you’re going to need those rookie contracts to offset the cost of an extremely expensive veteran contract that’s coming down the pike.

Nix extension, anyone? Even from here, it’s not hard to do the math.

Carolina, four years ago, got the Niners to fork over a ’23 second-round pick, a ’23 third-round pick, a ’23 fourth-round pick and a ’24 fifth-round pick for Christian McCaffrey. Giving Indy that kind of draft haul for Taylor would be hard to stomach. Especially if you’re planning on a long-term deal for Nix that could cost anywhere from $50-65 million per season.

A giant Nix raise means veterans in other position groups, especially on defense and along the offensive line, will have to be replaced by rookie contracts. That’s Roster Building 101.

Multiple reports indicated the Colts weren’t just asking for the Moon. They also wanted a few comets thrown in to sweeten the pot. A one-for-one, late-first-round pick in 2027 for Taylor, straight-up, would’ve been a risk worth taking. Especially after you did the same with Miami to land WR Jaylen Waddle earlier this year.

In the end, no suitor was comfortable with the asking price, and to give you an idea of the baseline, Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer reported that the Giants, who need running back help, had an offer of a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder for Taylor, only to pull that package off the table.

So when Sean Payton says he’s got faith in Nix, whether you like it or not, you might want to believe him.

“I know we have the right quarterback in the building,” Payton told his old pal, FS1 host Colin Cowherd, earlier this week. “I’ve just seen it. I’ve seen the behavior, the things that you need in clutch moments … he’s going to be outstanding.”

Nix is 31-12 in the regular season as the Broncos’ QB 1. He’s 1-1 as a starter in the postseason. Counting playoff games, Nix has won 17 straight one-score contests. So even if you don’t think that kind of “clutch” mojo is sustainable, Payton clearly does.