SEATTLE — What if Drew Lock wins again Sunday? What if the Seahawks quarterback, who turned 30 on Tuesday, plays well — again — while injured starter Sam Darnold dons a headset? What if Lock guts through simultaneous oblique and elbow injuries to light up Las Vegas? What if he stacks a fourth consecutive game without a turnover, after Darnold led the NFL in that department a season ago?

What if Lock, not Darnold, gives Seattle the best chance to succeed?

It’s a question worth asking, and a conversation worth having.

But don’t trust the eye test.

The eye test this season tells you Lock is better. It’s a no-brainer. Lock has a higher passer rating (116.0 to 79.5) and QBR (84.3 to 49.0) than Darnold. He has a higher touchdown rate (6.6% to 4.7%) and a lower interception rate (0% to 4.3%) than Darnold. He has a higher completion percentage (71.1% to 60.2%) and yards per pass attempt (7.9 to 7.0) than Darnold.

Seattle’s offense actually averages more yards and points per game with Darnold (331.5 yards per game, 23.5 points per game) than Lock (320.3, 20.3).

But big picture?

If you count the opener against New England, when Darnold played a single series before exiting due to injury, the Seahawks are 3-0 with Lock as their primary quarterback. They’re 2-4 with Darnold.

Because Darnold’s booms haven’t been worth the busts.

Not when Seattle’s defense is arguably stingier than a season ago, surrendering football’s fewest yards per play (4.1) and yards per game (244.2). Given that strength, you don’t need to average 30 points per game. You don’t need to force footballs into microscopic slivers. You don’t need to bet the house, when the “Dark Side” already stacks the deck.

You need to pass the baton to Usain Bolt without tripping on the way.

That was a successful formula last postseason, when Seattle didn’t commit a single turnover en route to the franchise’s second Super Bowl victory.

In their five victories this season, the Seahawks committed three turnovers.

In their four losses, the Seahawks committed 11 turnovers.

In Darnold’s six games as Seattle’s primary passer, the Seahawks committed 13 turnovers.

In Lock’s three games, the Seahawks committed one turnover.

Sometimes, it’s simple.

“I know that’s a big thing for me going into every week,” Lock said of ball security after last week’s 17-3 win over Arizona, “knowing we can control the game with the run, operate on third downs well, keep the ball in our hands, allow our defense to have long fields to defend, not give the other team the ball on the 30 (-yard line) or 20 or whatever it may be, playing complementary football.

“We have the best punter in the world. So getting to fourth down, it is what it is when you have Michael Dickson being able to punt and pin guys deep and allow our defense to have a 90-yard cushion.”

Sometimes, it’s simple.

This is not one of those times.

Because not all opponents are created equal. Lock twice bested an Arizona Cardinals defense that sits 31st out of 32 teams in opponent quarterback rating (108.9) and scoring (28.3 points per game). The Raiders defense he’ll see Sunday is somehow even worse, ranking dead last in opponent yards per play (6.1) and scoring (29.8).

Meanwhile, Darnold started consecutive games against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers, 7-2 Denver Broncos, 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs and 7-2 Chicago Bears.

If you include both New England and Las Vegas, the combined record of Lock’s opponents is 12-15. The combined record of Darnold’s opponents is 30-20-1.

Entering the second half of their season, Darnold’s ball security may be the Seahawks’ biggest concern. The 29-year-old, who will miss his second consecutive game because of quad and rib injuries, has surrendered nine interceptions in six full games. His 4.3% interception rate sits behind only Justin Herbert and the winless, hopeless Los Angeles Chargers. Debilitating Darnold interceptions sank the Seahawks in losses against Washington, San Francisco and Denver.

Seattle lost those three games by eight total points. Darnold was the difference, and not the way you’d want.

But how confident can you be that Lock would have been better? In 2020, his last season as a legitimate NFL starter, Lock’s 15 interceptions tied for the league lead. And in eight games and five starts with the New York Giants in 2024, he completed just 59.1% of his passes with six touchdowns and five picks.

It’s possible Lock has ascended in Seattle. It’s possible his success is more reflective of a personal evolution than a vulnerable opponent or two. It’s possible his bottom is not bound to fall out. After all, Darnold, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young are proof that supposed busts can grow into better.

But this is a difficult conversation for the Seahawks to have. It’s not the neater narrative. In the neater narrative, Darnold finds his footing, leads a playoff run and receives a contract extension this offseason. In the neater narrative, Lock — a soon-to-be free agent — impresses enough to earn a starting opportunity elsewhere. In the neater narrative, the Seahawks have a franchise quarterback — not a question mark, a competition or a controversy.

If he’s healthy, Darnold should absolutely be Seattle’s starter against San Francisco after the bye. But what if Lock wins again Sunday? And what if Darnold struggles against the 49ers, while the interceptions keep coming? What if the Seahawks’ playoff picture continues to blur? What if the neater narrative never arrives?

Until Darnold dispels his doubters, this conversation won’t go away.

“That dude’s a beast, man,” Seahawks safety Julian Love said of Lock after last week’s win. “He’s so tough and just so cool. Nothing fazes him. No matter what, he’s so confident. He has swagger. He really plays offense like a defensive player. I think that’s why all of us really love him, especially on defense. There’s confidence there. I’ve said it for years now: he’s the best 2 (backup QB) in the game.”

Maybe the best 2 would be better as a 1.

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