Sam Farmer's Week 10 NFL picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Nov 12, 2026

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted an 15-0 record. Through the first nine weeks of the season, he is 89-47 (.654).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 9 would have been 12-3 (.800). For the season, his record against the spread is 65-71 (.478).

All times are Pacific. The Bears, Broncos, Buccaneers and Eagles are off this week.

Commanders (2-5-1) at Giants (5-2-1)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Giants by 1 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The last time these teams met, they tied. The Commanders haven't won on the road this season, and the Giants are getting J.J. McCarthy and Cam Skattebo back. The Giants defense shines.

Pick: Giants 23, Commanders 20

Patriots (5-4) vs. Lions (6-2)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Lions by 2 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

The Patriots defense started strong but has fallen apart, and last week it was embarrassed by Green Bay. Offense is beat up. Detroit isn't scoring a ton but has won four in a row.

Pick: Lions 30, Patriots 24

Chiefs (6-2) at Falcons (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line:Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

Patrick Mahomes' elbow is in question. The Chiefs are coming off a get-right win over the Jets. The Falcons pulled off a stunner against San Francisco three weeks ago but that was their Super Bowl.

Pick: Chiefs 26, Falcons 20

Texans (3-5) at Browns (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 4 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

C.J. Stroud is coming off a five-touchdown game against the Chargers, and the Texans' defense had eight sacks. Deshaun Watson starts against his old team. The Browns have problems scoring in the red zone.

Pick: Texans 23, Browns 16

Vikings (6-2) at Packers (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Can the Vikings solve all their QB problems by trading for Kirk Cousins? That's a big ask. Jordan Love is having a great season, and the Packers' defense is second in the league in takeaways with 19.

Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 20

Jaguars (6-2) at Titans (1-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 10 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Jacksonville might be the best team in the AFC and it just beefed up its defense at the trade deadline. Cam Ward is coming off his best game for the Titans, but Jeffery Simmons being traded to Chicago is a major loss for the defense.

Pick: Jaguars 30, Titans 17

Dolphins (1-7) at Colts (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 3 1/2. O/U: 37 1/2.

The Colts had a fire sale but at least they kept their quarterback and running back. That might be enough to hold off the Dolphins, who have played a bit better lately by keeping games fairly close.

Pick: Colts 23, Dolphins 20

Panthers (3-5) at Saints (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Bryce Young looked good against Denver last week — much better than his two previous games — but the Panthers have still lost three in a row. The Saints are coming off a clutch performance in an overtime win over the Browns.

Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 24

Bills (7-1) at Jets (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 7 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

The Bills are coming off a short week but they have the NFL's highest-scoring offense. The Jets have lost four in a row and kick a lot of field goals. Jets can run the ball, though, and Breece Hall is back.

Pick: Bills 34, Jets 20

Rams (5-4) at Cardinals (3-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Rams by 9 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Rams aren't going to be swept by Arizona. They're in trouble at receiver, though, and need to find a way to limp through. Myles Garrett makes a scary defensive front terrifying. Tough draw for Carson Beck.

Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 16

Seahawks (5-4) at Raiders (4-5)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 6 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Fernando Mendoza makes his starting debut, and does so against a defense ranked No. 1 in yards allowed. Drew Lock starts again for the Seahawks, who are 2-0 with him at the helm.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Raiders 13

49ers (7-1) at Cowboys (4-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 4 1/2. O/U: 55 1/2.

The Cowboys can score but they can't stop anyone, least of all San Francisco, which might be the best team in the league. Despite a bunch of injuries (like a lot of teams) the 49ers keep finding ways to win.

Pick: 49ers 31, Cowboys 26

Steelers (6-2) at Bengals (6-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 3 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

First place in the AFC North is at stake, and these teams are evenly matched. Both have won four in a row, and Pittsburgh won the last meeting. The Steelers are 12-4 in Cincinnati since 2010.

Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 24

Chargers (0-8) at Ravens (4-5)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 4 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Ravens have lost four in a row and have a new quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. Hard to bet on the Chargers until they show a pulse, however. They've gotten into holes early and can't dig out.

Pick: Ravens 23, Chargers 13