Sam McDowell: What the Chiefs can expect from Josh Downs -- and what they should not expect
Published in Football
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Back in September in Kansas City, the Colts stormed some 68 yards down the field on their opening drive for an eventual short touchdown. The most critical of the 11 plays came on a third-down snap.
Josh Downs, a 5-foot-9 slot receiver, had torched Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed off the line of scrimmage, prying himself open on a slant pattern to prolong the drive.
A couple of hours later, on yet another third down, Downs did it again, using a reception to move the sticks. In the fourth quarter, Daniel Jones targeted his slot receiver twice more on third downs. The outcome?
First down.
First down.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the Chiefs’ early-season problem is now their midseason solution.
Or part of the solution, at least.
They acquired Downs an hour before the NFL trade deadline expired Tuesday, sending fourth- and fifth-round selections to Indianapolis in exchange for the player and a seventh-round pick, a source confirmed.
The Chiefs had little choice but to do something ahead of the deadline. They’re frankly good enough elsewhere offensively and intriguing enough defensively to make a run at it, even if those trips to Seattle and Denver flashed warning signs. They remain among the most efficient offenses in football on a per-play measurement — so long as you ignore their inefficiency inside the 5-yard line.
And they are now undoubtedly better than they were 24 hours ago, paying essentially market price to conclude a weeks-long search for a wide receiver.
The outcome of that exhaustive search requires not just an analysis of what they added but commentary of what they already have on the roster — or, in this case, what they definitively do not.
It looked as though fifth-round rookie receiver Cyrus Allen might have the skill set to be the same off-the-line route winner they just acquired, but he still cannot get on the field with any regularity. And this trade is not about Xavier Worthy being out with a hamstring injury but rather the lack of what he provides when he’s in the game. The Chiefs are here, using a couple of draft picks to fill a need, because their past picks did not fill them.
Downs immediately becomes the Chiefs’ best asset in a pretty key trait for a wide receiver: He gets open.
A lot.
His separation score, per Fantasy Points data, ranks fifth highest in the NFL.
The rest of the Chiefs, well, do not rank highly.
Downs averages 1.6 yards per route run against man coverages, per FTN data. Worthy is at 1.2. and Rashee Rice is at 1.1 in that same statistic.
But you know where he really shows up? We’re back to third downs. Downs is cooking at 2.6 yards per route run against man coverage on third downs. He ranks 12th in the league in turning third downs into new series, and that’s while operating with an offense led by Jones.
For too long, the Chiefs have relied on man coverage-beating concepts to win on third downs. They now have a man coverage-beating player.
It’s why the passing game appeared stale a year ago — they have to scheme it up. They now have the player who can just plain win.
Which brings us to the last point: where he wins.
He is not much of a downfield weapon, and thus the Chiefs will navigate through the back half and toughest half of their schedule absent a clear answer to generating explosive plays in the deeper part of the secondary. They still have not completed a downfield pass since Tyquan Thornton dislocated his ankle in Las Vegas. That was more than a month ago.
Last week, I analyzed just how valuable those downfield plays are.
In last week’s win against the Jets, the average Patrick Mahomes target stood just 2.9 yards past the line of scrimmage, per PFF. That was the lowest among the starting quarterbacks in Week 9.
Downs doesn’t change that. He has the eighth-lowest average depth of target in the NFL.
After a midseason trade Tuesday, the Chiefs therefore must study two things:
How can they get Downs, their new best separator, up to speed as quickly as possible?
And how can they use his ability to get open on underneath and intermediate routes to pry something loose downfield?
The Chiefs raised their floor Tuesday.
Those answers lead to their ceiling.
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