DENVER — Look at historical analytics, as Broncos head coach Sean Payton said in late March, and there’s not many examples of teams continuing to dominate clutch situations a year after winning 11 of 13 one-score games.

And Denver, coming off a 14-3 regular season, will now have to stare down the concept of statistical regression to the mean against a true gauntlet of a 2026 schedule. The Broncos will play 10 games in 2026 against teams that made the playoffs last year, and that’s not even counting a Week 1 Monday Night Football opener against the Kansas City Chiefs in enemy territory.

“You always understand the next challenge,” Payton said at NFL league meetings. “We have a tough schedule. We don’t know when we’re playing these teams.”

They know now, as then NFL’s Thursday-night schedule release revealed both good news and significantly worse news on Denver’s 2026 outlook. Let’s dive in.

The slate

— Week 1, Sept. 14: at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday Night Football)

— Week 2, Sept. 20: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

— Week 3, Sept. 27: vs. Los Angeles Rams

— Week 4, Oct. 4: at San Francisco 49ers

— Week 5, Oct. 11: at Los Angeles Chargers

— Week 6, Oct. 15: vs. Seattle Seahawks (Thursday Night Football)

— Week 7, Oct. 25: at Arizona Cardinals

— Week 8, Nov. 1: vs. Kansas City Chiefs

— Week 9, Nov 8: at Carolina Panthers

— Week 10: Bye

— Week 11, Nov. 22: vs. Las Vegas Raiders

— Week 12, Nov. 27: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Black Friday)

— Week 13, Dec. 6: vs. Miami Dolphins

— Week 14, Dec. 13: at New York Jets

— Week 15, Dec. 20: at Las Vegas Raiders

— Week 16, Dec. 25: vs. Buffalo Bills (Christmas Day)

— Week 17, TBD: at New England Patriots

— Week 18, TBD: at Los Angeles Chargers

Must-watch game: Sept. 27, vs. Los Angeles Rams

A lot of fantastic choices here, but this one could be a barnburner. Denver will head into Week 3 with a couple games to get their legs underneath them and for quarterback Bo Nix to get his ankle underneath him, and will face off here against arguably the most high-powered offense in the NFL. What can 31-year-old Broncos whiz-kid play-caller Davis Webb whip up against the NFL’s foremost whiz-kid in Rams head coach Sean McVay? There’s entire branches of offensive coaches spinning off from this coaching-tree matchup between Sean Payton and McVay, and this will be the first time the two head coaches square off since Payton took the reins in Denver in 2023.

Tune in at 6:20 p.m. on NBC for fireworks.

Tough-watch game: Dec. 13, at New York Jets

Yawn. This category was actually plenty hard, as there’s few gimmes on the Broncos’ schedule. The Raiders have Mendoza. The Cardinals have a new and potentially explosive offensive weapon in No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love.

The Jets have ... um. Geno Smith?

The Denver-New York matchup is always somewhat interesting in the weeds, as former Broncos assistant general manager Darren Mougey heads into his second season as the Jets’ GM. New York had a pretty strong draft, anchored by No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, but the roster is still unsexy. And this matchup is a lot less interesting than it was in 2025, when these two teams met across the pond in London. This will be the fourth straight season these AFC teams have met — it’s probably time to wipe this off the slate.

Bring some popcorn: Sept. 20, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Quietly, this whole matchup went down as one of the strangest matchups of the 2025 season. Let’s rewind. In game-week availability, Payton referred to the Jaguars — in a largely complimentary answer of their season — as “smaller-market.” Smartly, first-year Jaguars head coach Liam Coen weaponized that objectively true statement into a rallying cry for both his locker room and the city of Jacksonville at large. After snapping the Broncos’ 11-game win streak with a 34-20 victory last December, Coen fired off a shot postgame.

“A small-market team like us can can come into Mile High and get it done,” Coen said.

Multiple Denver players came away from that loss noting that they could see Jacksonville again in the playoffs. They didn’t. They will soon again, though, in Week 2. The Broncos’ locker room has often rallied around Payton’s messaging, and Denver’s head coach could weaponize the Jaguars’ 2025 response in turn a year later. This could get chippy.

Players’ revenge: Oct. 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers, Dec. 6 vs. Miami Dolphins

Publicly, there’s no hint of hard feelings from Denver toward inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who the organization cut after an injury-plagued season in 2025. Nor vice versa. But Greenlaw never found any kind of real rhythm last season, and admitted on a podcast appearance this offseason that he just “wasn’t happy” in Denver. He’s a ferocious competitor, and will likely bring some force to this inter-conference contest.

A couple months after that, the Broncos’ brightest offseason addition will get a chance to put his former franchise in the dirt at Empower Field. Star receiver Jaylen Waddle hasn’t taken any shots back at Miami, since the Dolphins traded him as part of a full-scale rebuild this offseason. But plenty in Waddle’s circle believe he was held back in two straight sub-1,000 yard seasons the last two years with quarterback and organizational instability. This could be a chance for him to tee off.

Toughest stretch: Literally the first six games of the year

The scheduling gods did Denver no favors here. The Broncos will kick off their season in prime time at Arrowhead Stadium, and that might be the easiest matchup they’ll get until late October. From there, they’ll play five straight teams that won at least 11 games last season. The worst of it all: two straight road games against the 49ers and the Chargers, rolling straight into a short-week Thursday Night Football matchup against the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Yikes.

That Week 6 game against the Seahawks will be delightfully ugly. The Broncos slogged through two TNF games last year, and took a defense-wins-championships mentality in both. Now Denver will host the league’s No. 1 defense after coming off back-to-back road games. Time for the defensive line to step up.

Lightest stretch: Weeks 13-15 (Dolphins, Jets, Raiders)

Thankfully for the Broncos, after that early-season run, they’ll slide into a nice breather in December and a potential opportunity to make up some conference ground. After a Black Friday trip to Pittsburgh to play against a Steelers team that may or may not feature a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, they’ll take on the rebuilding Dolphins at home, travel to New York the next week and host Las Vegas Dec. 20.

Three teams with a combined 13 wins in 2025 — less than the Broncos themselves had last season. Denver has to hope to go 3-0 in this stretch, heading into a final-season run with Buffalo, New England and the regular-season finale against the Chargers.

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