Greg Cote's Week 18 NFL picks

Enjoyed a solid all-round Week 17 with double-digit wins both straight-up and vs. the betting line. In this strangest of seasons — who’d-a-thunk the Chiefs would be lousy and the Jaguars real good? — we’ll take that, thanks. The gain of five against the spread gave us a fighting chance to get up over .500 for the season with another big final week. Last week’s bounty included a bull’s-eye on our Upset of the Week with Ravens winning at Green Bay, another outright upset with Giants’ win in Vegas, and four other ‘dogs-with-points on covers by the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Falcons. (The push was Dallas winning by seven.) Strong finish, anyone? Let’s GO!

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Week 17: 10-6, .625 overall; 10-5-1, .656 against the spread.

Season: 166-89, .651 overall; 124-126-5, .496 against the spread.

Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK / UPSET OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (13-3) at 49ERS (12-4)

Line: SEA by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: SF, 27-24.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, ABC/ESPN.

“AAAWWWK!” heralds the Upset Bird. “Happy new yaawwk!” This is our 35th season of NFL picks, and I don’t recall ever having co-Games of the Week before (see below), but these two merit the shared honor with winner-take-all stakes. And I mean all. Both teams here already have clinched playoffs, but Saturday night’s winner will win NFC West, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage. (For Seattle, a tie would be enough.) Both rivals come blazing in on six-game win streaks. Christian McCaffrey’s back issue should not prevent his playing, and he totaled 142 combined yards vs. Seattle in Niners’ narrow Week 1 win. SF also expects TE George Kittle to play. I’d not argue Seahawks might be better all-round, especially on defense. But give me combo of McCaffrey, the home field and Brock Purdy playing as well as any QB right now. “He’s on a heater,” notes U-Bird. “Braawwk Purdy!”

CO-GAME OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (8-8) at STEELERS (9-7)

Line: BAL by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 20-17.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

Final game of 2025 regular season is a prime-time prize befitting such a crescendo. The stakes: Everything. Winner advances to postseason as NFC North champion (a tie would be enough for Pittsburgh) to decide 14th and last NFL playoff spot, while loser hits the couch to watch on TV as Super Bowl tourney plays out. Co-starring with the result itself: The star QBs. Might we be witnessing Aaron Rodgers’ last career game? Can Lamar Jackson put a happy bow on what has been a down season for him? L-Jack expects to play despite back issues; our picking BAL to win counts on it. PIT will again be missing WR DK Metcalf to suspension, but hopes to have back sack man T.J. Watt. Bottom line: Mike Tomlin as a home dog in prime time makes Steelers mighty tempting, and I like ‘em to cover. But for the win give me the guy who has bull-rushed for 538 yards in past four games. Stay wintry hot, Derrick (King) Henry.

THE REST OF WEEK 18:

@Buccaneers (7-9, -3) over Panthers (8-8), 24-20: This first of two Saturday matchups might have been a third Game of the Week — the all-or-nothing stakes qualify — but I just can’t credit either team as playoff-worthy, though one will reign in the middling NFC South. Panthers clinch division title with a win or if Atlanta wins on Sunday. Bucs clinch with a win only if Atlanta then loses. All eight Carolina wins have been as underdog; still, Tampa is on 9-1 run in this rivalry, and I like Bucs finding a way at home even with Baker Mayfield playing hurt.

@Falcons (7-9, -3 1/2) over Saints (6-10), 26-24: This is Week 18’s best all-losers matchup, with N’Awlins on a four-game win streak behind rookie QB Tyler Shough and Atlanta on a three-game roll led by Bijan Robinson. Game also has spoiler-role stakes with a Falcons win able to knock Tampa out of playoffs if Bucs win Saturday. Like Birds’ pass defense to cool down Shough, but hedging with Saints to cover getting that extra half-point.

@Bengals (6-10, -7 1/2) over Browns (4-12), 27-16: One reason to watch the Ohio Bowl: Will Browns’ Myles Garrett get season sack record? It’s 22 1/2, by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt. Garrett has 22, so needs one full sack. I say he gets it ... in a loss. Earthtones just don’t have the offensive pop to hang with Joe Burrow.

@Vikings (8-8, -7) over Packers (9-6-1), 19-17: Betting lines can look funny in Week 18. This is one. It’s because playoff-bound Green Bay is locked into NFC’s No. 7 seed and will sit many key starters likely including QB Jordan Love. But J.J. McCarthy’s hand injury means Vikes may go with Max Brosmer. So I’m leaning Pack with points in a low-scoring affair.

Cowboys (7-8-1, -3 1/2) over @Giants (3-13), 37-16: NYG can still snatch No. 1 overall draft pick if Las Vegas loses, so Giants quite literally cannot afford a win here. Besides, Dak Prescott owns this division opponent. Boys have beaten Brobdingnagians nine in a row and 16 of past 17. Saddle up that trend and ride, baby!

@Jaguars (12-4, -12 1/2) over Titans (3-13), 41-13: Jacksonville can clinch AFC South, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with win and if Denver and New England both lose. More likely, red-hot Jags will clinch division title with a win or loss by Houston. Jax won first meeting by 22 and should roll again.

@Texans (11-5, -10 1/2) over Colts (8-8), 24-16: Houston, winner of eight straight, is playoff-clinched but can still win AFC South with win here if unlikely happens and Jacksonville loses. Indy, losers of six in a row, will start rookie QB Riley Leonard, thus ending the intriguing-yet-bizarre Philip Rivers exhumation. Lean Colts in a spirited rivalry getting this many points.

@Bills (11-5, -7) over Jets (3-13), 24-13: Buff can’t win division but can move up from seven seed to six or even five by winning. Still, Josh Allen, nursing foot injury, might not play much if he does at all. Hence the modest point spread despite Jets’ awfulness. Still like Bills big over a foe already headed to the first tee.

@Bears (11-5, -3) over Lions (8-8), 31-27: Chitown has clinched NFC North but can lock up No. 2 seed with win here; that’s big incentive. So is having lost to Motown in first meeting. Then again Dan Campbell will be hell-bent for his rested Lions to finish over .500 but might be missing Amon-Ra St. Brown. Tough call, but lean Bears, who are 6-1 at The Soldier.

@Broncos (13-3, -12 1/2) over Chargers (11-5), 24-10: Another crazy point spread? Here’s why: Denver has won AFC West but can clinch No. 1 seed, first-round bye and home field with win (or with unlikely losses by Patriots and Jaguars). That’s a ton of incentive for Broncos, while playoff-bound Chargers have little to play for and will rest key starters including QB Justin Herbert. You want a Class 1 mismatch? Denver’s defense vs. Trey Lance.

Chiefs (6-10, -5 1/2) over @Raiders (2-14), 27-6: K.C. is rested after playing last Thursday and will want to end a monumentally disappointing season on positive note — especially with many believing this will be Travis Kelce’s final game. Vegas is terrible, has incentive to lose an 11th straight for No. 1 draft pick, and will be missing top defender Maxx Crosby and likely QB Geno Smith, too.

@Rams (11-5, -7 1/2) over Cardinals (3-13), 34-13: L.A. has clinched playoffs but might inch into higher seeding with win. As much as that, after a two-game skid including Monday’s loss to Atlanta the Rams will be after a gust of momentum entering postseason. Look for a big bounce-back game from Matthew Stafford as he tries to revive league MVP hopes.

@Eagles (11-5, -4 1/2) over Commanders (4-12), 20-13: Philly has won NFC East, but a win here might boost seeding for a better first-round draw. National Birds should get that — although plans to rest starters including QB Jalen Hurts muddies the assumption. Hurts’ backup Tanner McKee would be making his second NFL start. Balancing that, with Marcus Mariota iffy for Comms it was looking like Josh Johnson again.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of midday Thursday.)