NFL training camp has officially kicked off. Padded football practices are already underway for all 32 NFL franchises, with preseason games soon to follow.

"Training camp buzz" will soon reach unwarranted heights around the NFL over the next month, too, which means we must approach our upcoming fantasy season with the utmost caution. And when mid-to-late August hits, we're going to need the whole Epsom salt truck packed to the brim to take with us to our drafts.

Just in July alone, a video of Browns RB Nick Chubb made the rounds on social media after he was seen squatting 540 pounds ... seemingly only eight months after undergoing knee surgery to repair ligament damage he suffered in Week 2 against the Steelers last season on Sunday Night Football.

Do you know what Chubb didn't do in the video? Plant his knee in the ground and cut.

Anyone catch Justin Fields' beautifully thrown TD bomb from Steelers practice to Van Jefferson? It shouldn't move the needle for fantasy managers one iota, but for some, it will.

Home league and office drafts are rapidly approaching, and whether you're playing with friends and family, colleagues, or in a high-stakes league, we at the Post-Gazette are here to ensure you're fully equipped for every scenario possible and able to cut through all the noise. We last discussed how coach-speak can be the ultimate killer of fantasy drafts. However, let's not forget about the other perpetrators, either: the beat reporters and the players themselves.

'NFL insiders' will soon be abuzz with cut-day speculation based on nothing but glorified practice highlights and one-handed circus reel receptions. Rookies will appear to be ascending their depth chart ladders faster than the words 'hawk tuah' can go viral on TikTok. And almost every player battling for a spot on said depth chart will be deemed 'in the best shape of his life' by either himself or his coach.

However, amid the rose-colored glasses that perpetuate NFL training camp, we as fantasy managers must keep ourselves rooted in truth. Actions speak louder than words, just as preseason actual game highlights speak louder than practice highlights with no eligible tacklers in sight.

Sure, it's exciting to hop on the bandwagon of a possible breakout WR or rookie star in the making. Still, it's also no fun over-drafting a rookie based on training camp hype alone, only to see him ride the pine for eight weeks and struggle to see consistent playing time in his first full NFL season. Knowing which reporters to trust, as well as what coaches to believe more than others, will be more crucial than ever in helping us formulate a championship-caliber draft strategy.

It's also important to remember that draft capital is essential to our fantasy decision-making. NFL franchises have a monetary incentive to play rookie quarterbacks faster than a typical training camp backup, just as they do to give a first—or second-round draft pick more playing time (at least at the start of the season) than a day-three selection. Expect first-year signal-callers like Bo Nix, Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy to start sooner rather than later, despite an almost media-manufactured hype around "QB battles" during August.

With that said, let's continue the 30-for-30 series by discussing 30 more fantasy players in 30 words or less, this time on my top fade (stay away) candidates for 2024. I previously highlighted 30 players to know for the 2024 regular season, and in the coming weeks, we will also break down my favorite players to draft at each position, as well as top sleepers and breakout players to monitor.

Please note that players listed below are considered "stay-aways" mainly due to their ADP (average draft position). Just because I'm avoiding Bijan Robinson in my home league drafts does NOT mean I don't think he will have a bad season. I'm avoiding him because the acquisition cost is simply too high compared to other equally skilled players at the position and their respective costs.

Fantasy QBs to avoid (at cost)

— Patrick Mahomes is a three-time Super Bowl champion and being drafted as this year's QB2 ... despite finishing as QB14 in 2023 ... his ADP (average draft position) is simply too inflated ...

— C.J. Stroud is the real deal, but he was only QB10 in 2023 and doesn't run much ... he's currently being drafted as QB5, almost a round higher than ... Anthony Richardson ...

— CHI's defense is borderline elite and won't need heavy pass volume in 2024 ... yet Caleb Williams (QB12 ADP) is being drafted before supreme runner Jayden Daniels and other elite passers ...

— Jared Goff was QB15 in 2023 and has a capped ceiling with DET's improved defense and run game ... Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield and Desean Watson all have far more upside ...

— Aaron Rodgers (QB19 ADP) is coming off an Achilles injury and has an elite defense ... his pass volume will pale in comparison to the later-drafted Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith ...

— J.J. McCarthy is being drafted QB24 despite not being MIN's Week 1 QB1... after him, Will Levis and Daniel Jones have viable paths to breakout seasons and are locked-in starters ...

Fantasy RBs to avoid (at cost)

— Kyren Williams was THE fantasy darling of 2023, but he's never played more than 12 games in a season and will soon cede touches to Michigan's Blake Corum ...

— Bijan Robinson was RB17 (points per game) in 2023, and Atlanta figures to be much pass-happier with Cousins in 2024 ... I understand the optimism, but not an RB3 ADP tag ...

— Similarly, IND's Jonathan Taylor was RB12 last year but is now being drafted as RB4 ... despite a healthy, run-first QB under center in Richardson ... and more passing weapons to boot ...

— Devin Singletary profiles as NYG's 2024 starter, but rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. boasts an elite burst score and agility score (96th percentile) ... and Daniel Jones likes to run ... a lot ...

— Derrick Henry never played with a rushing QB in TEN and now enters his age 30 season off a modest RB16 finish in 2023 ... with a 2024 ADP of RB10 ...

— NFL running backs have historically shown a sharp decline at age 29, to be exact — the same age as Minnesota's Aaron Jones ... who is being drafted far too high (RB18) ...

— NE has a new coaching regime with zero ties to players drafted under Belichick ... so why is Rhamondre Stevenson (RB20 ADP) being taken ahead of last year's RB2, Raheem Mostert?

— Nick Chubb (RB28 ADP) might return in Week 8 ... or in 2025 ... he's going ahead of Jaylen Warren, who led all backs in missed tackles forced per attempt in 2023 ...

— Rookie Trey Benson (RB35 ADP) is talented, but he's third on Arizona's depth chart ... and still being drafted before possible breakout players in Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle ...

— Josh Jacobs sits atop GB's depth chart heading into Week 1, but there's a strong chance he cedes goal-line work (AJ Dillon) and backfield targets (MarShawn Lloyd) throughout the season ...

Fantasy WRs to avoid (at cost)

— Drake London has an insanely high price tag of WR11 right now, but he barely finished inside the top 50 WRs last season ... ranking behind Kendrick Bourne and Bo Melton ...

— Stefon Diggs was the WR18 last season as the Bills' lone legitimate WR option ... now he enters an elite Texans WR room with Nico Collins (WR8) and Tank Dell (WR13) ...

— Terry McLaurin was the WR43 in 2023 despite WAS throwing it at one of the league's highest clips ... now he gets a rookie QB who loves to tuck and run ...

— Rome Odunze has a bright NFL future, but for now, he's stuck behind bonafide stars in D.J. Moore/Keenan Allen ... yet he's being drafted as a borderline top-40 wideout ...

— Fellow rookie Troy Franklin is being drafted as DEN's second WR in fantasy drafts, but in camp, he's running with backups as the WR4 behind Marvin Mims Jr. and Josh Reynolds ...

— Zay Flowers was last year's WR33, but that was with Mark Andrews sidelined for much of 2023 ... Andrews is back healthy, and BAL added multiple pass-catching weapons during the offseason ...

— George Pickens will be the Steelers' bonafide WR1 this season, but PIT is projected to throw at one of the league's lowest rates ... at WR28, he's being drafted too high ...

— I'm equally out (at current cost) on DeAndre Hopkins, who recently strained his knee in training camp and is entering his age-32 season with unproven Will Levis under center ...

Fantasy TEs to avoid (at cost)

— Sam LaPorta averaged 11.5 half-PPR points per game last season, just 1.5 ahead of the TE7 David Njoku ... his TE1 price tag is fine, but NOT at overall pick 26 ...

— Travis Kelce turns 35 in October and is coming off a steep decline in fantasy production ... KC also added top WR targets in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason ...

— Kyle Pitts has primarily been a fantasy bust for both of his NFL campaigns, yet he's still being drafted with an inflated ADP of TE7 despite finishing TE17 and TE22 ...

— Dalton Kincaid was TE14 last season and is now being drafted (at his absolute ceiling) at TE5, overall pick 51 ... ahead of possible league-winning WRs Amari Cooper and Malik Nabers ...

— T.J. Hockenson had a stellar 2023 fantasy season, but it's possible he could miss at least half of 2024 or more ... his current ADP of TE13 is way too high ...

— Isaiah Likely was last year's TE28 in points per game despite Mark Andrews missing eight games ... he doesn't warrant a TE19 price tag this season, especially ahead of other locked-in starters ...

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Chris Dell is the founder of BettingPredators.com and a former fantasy football and sports betting lead analyst for ESPN 97.5. Chris recently won first place out of 235 analysts in the FantasyPros Fantasy Football NFL Draft Accuracy rankings competition. He's also our sports editor at the Post-Gazette.

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