Matt Calkins: After NBA approves expansion talks, is it time to believe in a Sonics return?

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Mar 26, 2026

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SEATTLE — The real story would have been if the vote went the other way, but this still feels like progress you can touch.

The NBA’s board of governors did what was expected Wednesday, but a lack of surprise doesn’t mean a lack of elation.

All 30 of the league’s owners voted in favor of exploring expansion in Seattle and Las Vegas. The likelihood for a Sonics return — which could come as soon as the 2028-29 season — is sitting somewhere between highly probable and inevitable.

And though it’s fair for Sonics fans to hold the “I’ll believe it when I see it” mentality, it seems the NBA’s power brokers believe they will, indeed, see it.

I’d be remiss not to mention a column I wrote last week suggesting Seattle sports die-hards guard their enthusiasm after the announcement of Wednesday’s vote. Not because I was reluctant to think owners would approve expansion exploration, but because a Sonics return has been a decade-plus-long tease that has led to nothing but torment.

Since then, however, it seems everyone covering the NBA is viewing the additions of a Seattle and Vegas franchise as imminent, not questionable. Dare I say … it’s time to believe?

It’s true that all Wednesday’s vote did was launch the possibility of expansion. The league will spend the next few months vetting potential owners before voting on final approval, which could come as early as this summer.

But if fans read the reporting from say, ESPN’s Shams Charania, how do they not dust off that old Shawn Kemp jersey and wear it around town tonight? Wrote Charania: “Multiple-high-ranking officials have termed expansion as ‘when, not if.'”

The timing is certainly right. As Seattle Times sports writer Tim Booth pointed out, the NBA’s recent priorities have been hammering out the new collective bargaining agreement media rights deal. There was also the sales of the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics at the center of league Commissioner Adam Silver’s plate. But now that all that is out of the way, the focus on expansion makes sense.

Speaking of the Celtics and Lakers, their valuations sure have the rest of the league’s owners thirsty for adding two more teams. The Celtics sold for $6.1 billion. The Lakers for $10 billion. This means the expansion fee for a new team will be somewhere in the $7 billion-$10 billion range. Let’s say it’s $8 billion each for Seattle and Vegas. Take $16 billion and divide it by 30 — and that puts roughly $533 million into the pockets of each owner.

Had expansion been sought before those two teams sold, the number might have been half that. In other words, waiting made sense then. Expanding makes sense now.

And we know there is at least one group interested in owning the Sonics— One Roof Sports and Entertainment, the Kraken’s umbrella company. Will more come in to compete? Well, $7 billion-$10 billion is a lot of money. But the opportunity to own a sports franchise in one of the three most popular leagues in the nation? That’s quite an allure. To quote the HBO Series “Billions” — “Sports franchises are how we knight people in this country.”

I know there are still lots of bitter Washingtonians who might not want to give the NBA their time due to the Sonics’ 2008 departure. I know there are others who think the league’s product is a shell of its old self. But it’s hard not to think that the majority of sports fans in this town are champing at the bit to bring back the old NBA champs.

All that said, the proverbial check is not in hand yet. Perhaps there is an unforeseen roadblock. Perhaps there are owners who need to be truly wowed by potential bidders before providing final approval. Perhaps the price will indeed be too much.

But probably not.

The thought of a Sonics return extends way beyond Seattle. Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr and Mavericks coach Jason Kidd have both expressed their excitement about the proposition recently. And some are wondering if Kevin Durant — who began his career as a Sonic in 2007 — might end his career as one, too. It’s all fair.

The NFL is here. MLB is here. The NHL is here. A major college football program is here. The WNBA, MLS, NWSL and PWHL — they’re all here, too. There’s only hoop-sized hole left and that’s on the verge of being filled.

Perhaps Wednesday’s vote seemed like a formality to some. But it was really a step closer to finality.

Get excited. The ball is rolling — and it’s an orange Wilson.

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