Winds of Change in the Black Vote
Data shows that winds of political change are blowing among Black voters.
In volatile times like now, predictions can be made with only the greatest caution.
However, it seems clear that something is going on and Black voters are breaking with past voting patterns.
The New York Times reported last November that, per its polling with Siena College, 22% of Black voters in six key battleground states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- indicated they would support Republican Donald Trump.
In 2020, Trump gained ground with Blacks, picking up 12% of the Black vote, up from 8% in 2016. But any suggestion that any Republican candidate might pick up 20-plus percent of the Black vote is revolutionary.
The last time the Black vote went beyond the teens for a Republican was in 1960, when Richard Nixon got 32% of the Black vote, in a close election he lost to John Kennedy.
The next election in 1964 was, for Blacks, about the Civil Rights Movement. The Republican candidate, Barry Goldwater, opposed passage of the Civil Rights Act and got 4% of the Black vote. Republicans have not recovered since.
Nixon returned and won the presidency in 1968 and1972. However, Blacks supported him at a fraction of what he received in 1960 -- Nixon getting 10% of the Black vote in 1968 and 13% in 1972.
In a USA Today/Suffolk University Poll reported in January, only 63% of Black voters indicated support for President Joe Biden, compared to 87% who voted for him in 2020.
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows a less compelling picture of Blacks moving toward Trump. That poll shows 12% support for Trump, exactly where he was in 2020.
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