Winds of Change in the Black Vote

However, the poll shows Black sentiment moving away from Democrats with almost 20% of Black voters indicating they would support a third party candidate.

Now we have new data from Gallup reporting that "The Democratic Party's wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans' party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years."

Among Black Americans surveyed, 66% said they identify as Democrat/lean Democrat and 19% Republican/lean Republican, for a differential of 47 points.

A little over three years ago in 2020, in the same survey, 77% of Black Americans identified as Democrat/lean Democrat, compared to 11% identifying as Republican/lean Republican, for a differential of 66 points. In just three years, the differential between Black support for Democrats and for Republicans has shrunk 19 points.

Overall, the 47-point differential in this latest survey is the smallest since Gallup first started doing the survey in 1999, when the differential was 72 points.

With recent elections decided by tiny margins in battleground states, a fundamental change in voting behavior by one key demographic -- Blacks -- can be a game changer.

The implications over the long haul are profound given the demographic changes taking place, with the percentage of the white vote, which accounts for the majority of Republican votes, shrinking in each election. In 2020, whites accounted for 67% of the vote. This compared to 1980 when the white vote stood at 88%.

Per the Census Bureau, the percentage of the U.S. population that is white will be down to 45% by 2060. So, any movement of Blacks, and Hispanics, away from Democrats means a lot.

Why is this apparent movement of Blacks from Democrats happening?

Here's one hypothesis I propose from the New York Times/Siena College Poll.

That poll shows that, relative to whites, Blacks care more about economic issues than social issues. Sixty-five percent of Blacks say economic issues are most important compared to 53% of whites. Twenty-one percent of Blacks say social issues are most important compared to 33% of whites.

Perhaps we are entering new times when fewer Blacks look to government for social justice and more want economic growth and opportunity.

This means Republicans.

Star Parker is president of the Center for Urban Renewal and Education and host of the weekly television show "Cure America with Star Parker." Her recent book, "What Is the CURE for America?" is available now. To find out more about Star Parker and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

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