Can Trump recover and win in November?
Henry Olsen, a scholar from the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, D.C., has a well-deserved reputation for on-target analysis on politics and elections.
Olsen just published a column in the Washington Post titled "Trump may be down, but he is not out. At least not yet."
The bottom has fallen out of President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Most recently, Gallup reports his approval at 39%, down 10 points from the month before.
According to Olsen, by conventional analysis, the outlook for a Trump victory in November is not good. "Presidents who polled this poorly less than five months before Election Day have always lost," he wrote.
But how useful is conventional analysis now?
President Trump is not a conventional figure. These are not conventional times. And his polling has been like a roller coaster since he was elected.
The standard reelection campaign refrain is "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
President Trump ran on a theme: "Make America Great Again." Voters will ask in November, "Is America greater today than four years ago?"
Here again, there is reason for concern.
Another new Gallup poll shows the percentage of Americans saying they are "extremely" or "very" proud of their country is the lowest ever, at 63%. This is 18 points lower than where it stood four years ago.