From the Right



Ignore the polls, betting sites say that Trump can still win

John Stossel on

Donald Trump will probably lose the election.

As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8% chance of winning.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12% chance.

But people who "put money where their mouths are" give Trump a better chance: 37%.

That's according to, the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world.

Though 61%-37% seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37% means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time.


Four years ago, most bettors were wrong about Trump and Brexit. I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets.

But since bettors were wrong in 2016, why trust betting odds now?

Because betting is a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models and everything else. has tracked hundreds of races. When bettors think a candidate has a 37% chance -- they really do win roughly that often.


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