Ignore the polls, betting sites say that Trump can still win
Donald Trump will probably lose the election.
As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8% chance of winning.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12% chance.
But people who "put money where their mouths are" give Trump a better chance: 37%.
That's according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world.
Though 61%-37% seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37% means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time.
Four years ago, most bettors were wrong about Trump and Brexit. I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets.
But since bettors were wrong in 2016, why trust betting odds now?
Because betting is a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models and everything else.
ElectionBettingOdds.com has tracked hundreds of races. When bettors think a candidate has a 37% chance -- they really do win roughly that often.