The Not So Secret Preludes to Russia's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

Even with its manpower and resource advantages, Russia's inept military cannot employ decisive combat power. Russia has suffered horrendous casualties. StrategyPage.com recently estimated since February 2022, Russia has suffered over 400,000 soldiers killed or severely wounded. Moreover, Russia is currently "losing about 300 soldiers, dead or wounded, a day."

Ukraine has also sustained heavy casualties but still exhibits a strong will to fight. Like Finland and Israel, Ukraine is a nation-in-arms. An invader fights the entire population, not just a government and regular military forces. So Ukraine manages to survive on the battlefield -- as Russian missiles devastate its cities.

Another form of attrition threatens Ukraine -- attrition of political and material support from its European and American allies.

It appears the U.S. Congress will approve another military aid request for Ukraine, but dithering only encourages Putin's delusions.

Military analysts argue that to fight a mobile armored battle that creates decisive breakthoughs, Ukraine needs manned strike aircraft to support its tanks and infantry. In 2023, Ukraine didn't have the aircraft. The Biden administration spent a year dithering. F-16s won't arrive until mid-2024 -- if then.

In a recent two-hour-long video interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin made it clear he invaded Ukraine because he believes Ukraine belongs to Russia. After the interview, Carlson told his audience that he was "shocked" to learn Putin really believes Russia has historic claims to Ukraine. Well, for decades Putin has proclaimed Russian supremacy, and Russia's horrendous losses haven't purged his delusion. Putin has propagandized ethnic Russians and incited ethnonational passions to mobilize Russian support for an imperial war to reclaim allegedly lost territories. Putin himself is the driving strategic force -- the center of gravity -- behind his stalemated war for the Russian Empire.

Carlson apparently believed Putin's propaganda pitch, that he ordered the invasion because he feared an imminent attack by NATO and America.

Until Putin is gone, there is no military or diplomatic route to a ceasefire, much less just peace.

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To find out more about Austin Bay and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.

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