Betting on classified Maduro raid not a crime, US soldier argues

Bob Van Voris, Bloomberg News on Aug 1, 2026

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

The U.S. Army soldier charged with making winning Polymarket predictions based on classified information about the raid to capture then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro asked a judge to throw out the case, saying the alleged bets aren’t a crime.

Lawyers for Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a special forces soldier who prosecutors said was involved in the planning and execution of the raid, called the prosecution “overzealous,” and said the government’s case was based on untested legal theories.

“Criminal courts are not laboratories where prosecutors can test new ideas and hypotheses about whether conduct is criminal,” Van Dyke said in a court filing late Friday.

Van Dyke faces a maximum of 20 years behind bars on the most serious charge, wire fraud. He faces additional charges including commodities fraud and illegally transferring the proceeds of a crime. He pleaded not guilty and is free on $250,000 bond.

A spokesman for the U.S. attorney in Manhattan declined to comment on Van Dyke’s court filing.

Polymarket operates a platform that allows users to wager on the outcome of real-world events, including election outcomes, war and movie box office results. The company has said it cooperated with the government’s investigation.

Prosecutors claim Van Dyke created and funded a Polymarket account around Dec. 26, then traded on contracts relating to whether Maduro would be ousted as Venezuela’s leader. He allegedly placed 13 bets from Dec. 27 through Jan. 2, taking the “yes” side of predictions that Maduro would be out of power and that U.S. forces would be in the country by the end of January.

Van Dyke’s legal team claims federal commodity laws that criminalize illegal swap trades don’t apply to bets on prediction markets. And government secrets, such as the plans surrounding the Maduro raid, don’t qualify as “property” of the government under the wire fraud law, they argued.

U.S. forces removed Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from Venezuela on Jan. 3. Van Dyke cashed out his Polymarket bets the same day, making profits of about $400,000, according to the government.

Maduro and Flores face trial in June 2027 on drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracy charges. They’ve pleaded not guilty and are being held in a federal jail in Brooklyn.

———

The case is U.S. v. Van Dyke, 26-cr-00156, US District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).