Odds increase system off Florida coast could become tropical, hurricane center says

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 18, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Saturday said a system churning off Florida’s west coast has an increased chance to build into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

In its 8 p.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said that satellite images and surface observations indicate a broad surface low has formed over the eastern Gulf off the western coast of Florida.

“However, the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized,” forecasters said. “Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.”

The NHC notes interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system, which is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been tapped to investigate the system on Sunday.

The NHC, which began tracking the system on Wednesday, now gives the system a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 50% in the next seven.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said the forecast for the low’s formation has migrated a little west since previous estimates with the system moving toward Florida’s Big Bend on Sunday and the Panhandle on Monday.

“Regardless if this system becomes tropical over the next several days, the development of the low will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient over the local area, with southerly winds picking up to 10-15 mph areawide,” forecasters said.

Rain chances are slightly less than previously forecast though over the weekend, but normal Florida storm dangers remain with a 20-50% chance for storms in the afternoon and evening.

“Some storms may be strong,” forecasters said. “Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches. Some minor, localized flooding will also be possible in some locations in training rain bands.”

That should diminish by late evening and into the overnight hours with mostly dry conditions after midnight.

The 2026 hurricane season so far has had just one named system, the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur that developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana in June.

The next names on the hurricane season list are Bertha and Cristobal.

The season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for eight to 14 named storms, of which three to six would become hurricanes. Of those, one to three would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.