Hurricane center continues to track system that could form in Gulf

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jun 13, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Saturday continued to forecast an area of low pressure that had formed off the coast of Mexico has a low chance to develop when it moves into the Gulf next week.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure was just offshore of eastern Mexico producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.

“While this system has become better organized since yesterday, marginal environmental conditions will probably prevent significantdevelopment before the low moves inland over eastern Mexico by Sunday,” forecasters said. “The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday or Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are also expected to be only marginally conducive for development.”

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

This is the first potential tropical system being tracked by the NHC in the Atlantic basin since the start of hurricane season.

The eastern Pacific has already been busy with three tropical storms, but so far the Atlantic basin has been quiet.

Hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.