Hurricanes act as a sort of heat engine, Masters said. They take heat energy from the ocean and convert it into wind energy. That means the more heat that is available, the stronger a hurricane can get. Deep, warm water can also negate the cooling effects of winds that may otherwise weaken a strong tropical storm.

The highest temperatures driven by an El Niño typically lag about three months after the weather pattern has peaked, Masters said. This year’s El Niño reached its zenith last month, so he expects the warmest weather to show up around May.

“We’re pretty confident that it’s going to be a record stretch of weather globally into the summer,” he said.

While all signs point to a particularly intense hurricane season, Masters said it’s too early to panic.

“February is really too early to get too whipped up about the potential for a hyperactive hurricane season,” he said.

Masters said two weather events could work against the warm waters expected this season and lower storm risk.

If a large amount of Saharan dust blows across the oceans, it would reflect sunlight, shade waters and cool surface temperatures. Another possibility is a natural shift in wind patterns over the Atlantic, kicking up the trade winds and stirring up waters.

“But here we are in February, so we have no idea how that’s going to play out when it comes to hurricane season,” he added.

Another big question mark ahead of hurricane season is what factors are at play that could push storms our way.

Masters compared the unseasonable Atlantic temperatures this year to previous ones. There were 12 hurricanes whipped up in 2010 — the third most-active season on record. But none of those made landfall in the U.S., Masters said.

...continued

©2024 Tampa Bay Times. Visit tampabay.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.