Hurricane expert Brian McNoldy said the warmest temperatures are concentrated in the main hurricane development region of the Atlantic, from Africa to the Caribbean Sea. Temperatures in the region are similar to what experts would expect to see around the beginning of the hurricane season, he said.

“It’s exceptionally unlikely that what we’re seeing is happening — but it’s happening,” said McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

Long-range forecasts that look at possible sea surface temperatures in July, August and September show temperatures could remain more than a few degrees above normal.

”They don’t sound like big numbers but for an ocean and things in the tropics, very small changes actually matter a lot,” McNoldy said.

Should the warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures stick around, warm waters could stir up storms at the start of hurricane season, he said.

A similar batch of ingredients were in place last year when two early season storms formed off the coast of Africa: Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy.

McNoldy told The Tampa Bay Times back then that storms forming in that area of the Atlantic was unusual in June. If the warm waters stick around as predicted this year, it’s possible storms could have the juice to get up and running early on again, he said.

More concerning than high surface temperatures is the Atlantic’s ocean heat content, a measurement of deeper warm waters. It’s pivotal to forecasting hurricane intensity and is now unseasonably high in both the Atlantic and the Gulf.

“I’m anticipating we’re going to have near-record or possibly record ocean heat content this coming hurricane season,” Masters said. “Because right now, there’s so much hot water going down to great depths right through the Atlantic.”

“The oceans have a long memory and they’ve got a lot of heat, and so they’re going to keep on giving off that heat to the weather over the next few months.”

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