If profit motives in the real estate industry could contribute to housing problems, can we acknowledge that personal finances also cloud individuals’ opinions on property matters?

Consider a survey conducted for LendingTree that found, among other things, that 31% of Americans want the housing market to crash.

Contemplate how these polling results differ between owners and renters and the catalysts behind these divides. This survey, conducted in January, interviewed 1,203 people who owned a home and 797 who didn’t. The lack of consensus is why housing challenges are so hard to fix.

Look, there was no difference in the size of the crowd rooting for a crash among owners and renters. But the mixed reasoning among them tells us a lot.

The survey found that 37% of renters who were rooting for a crash said a price collapse would improve their odds of buying a home. Just 12% of owners felt the same way.

Conversely, 39% of owners hoping for a housing crash wanted the lower property taxes a drop would create, compared with 15% of renters.

Now, others rooting for a crash weren’t as inwardly focused. These people hoped that a market upheaval might spur change.

The poll found 33% of owners and 26% of renters thought a crash could restore stability to the market. And a collapse might motivate broader economic reforms, said 23% of renters and 15% of owners.

The desire for affordability is a strong motivation. My trusty spreadsheet found that an American homebuyer’s estimated monthly house payment has doubled over the past six years.

Let’s remember, this same financial burden for a house hunter was roughly cut in half during the Great Recession’s crash.

Conflicted pricing

Crash hopes, however, didn’t align with the realities of price predictions within the polling.

Look at the overall home-price outlook for the coming year. Most of the folks surveyed think home prices will rise in the coming year: 58% of renters and 53% of owners.

Plus, of the folks who see a decline, only 12% of renters and 10% of owners expected a drop of 10% or more.

And a significant share of those who see rising prices expect a boom ahead: 22% of renters and 17% of owners expect prices to rise by 10% or more.

Mortgage dreams

A major wildcard for housing is mortgage rates, which have risen in recent years from historical lows.

Financing costs make folks antsy. The survey found that 42% of renters and 45% of owners are fearful that rates will remain high.

But soaring mortgage rates — one nightmare scenario — seemed unlikely to those polled, with only 15% of owners expecting rates above 7% in the coming year, compared with 21% of renters.

Note that 25% of owners expect to see a return to the all-time low rates of 2020-21 in their lifetimes. Only 12% of renters had the same thought.

Perhaps owners harbor some wishful thinking about bargain-basement rates. The survey found 35% of owners said their current low mortgage rate makes them reluctant to buy another property.

Postscript

Here are two other significant gaps in perceptions within housing.

When asked if President Donald Trump “will be good for the housing market in 2026?” 52% of owners said “yes,” compared with 31% of renters.

Curiously, one of Trump’s ideas to improve affordability – a 50-year mortgage – seems far more popular with the individuals who were surveyed than with industry insiders, who widely panned the proposal.

Pollsters found that 29% of owners and 30% of renters said they’d use a 50-year loan if it improved their homebuying affordability.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

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