Toyota is working on a solid state battery that would go into a new car to be sold in Japan by 2022. Lithium-ion is the predominant battery technology in most current electrified vehicles.
So far Americans have not embraced EVs, although combined U.S. sales of gas-electric hybrids, plug-in electrics and fully battery-powered vehicles increased 14.6 percent so far this year compared with the first nine months of 2016, but still account for only 3.3 percent of the market, according to data compiled by hybridcars.com.
Outside the West Coast, inexpensive gasoline, a sparse network of public charging and Americans' strong preference for abundant cargo space and heavier vehicles have been daunting obstacles to EVs.
China will be the short-term springboard for mass EV demand.
Gang Xu, BCG partner and co-author of the study, said China auto sales should reach about 28 million in 2019 and he expects electric vehicles to account for about 10 percent or 2.8 million of those.
Mosquet said the study is based on the assumption that oil prices will remain stable at an average of about $60 a barrel over the next 13 years.
He acknowledged that the Trump administration has talked about easing existing regulations on fuel economy and targets to reduce carbon emissions.
But for the study, his team assumed that California, where the Air Resources Board has said it will continue enforcing its strict fuel economy and emission standards. Twelve other states, including New York, Pennsylvania and most of the Northeast region follow California's standards.
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