With 2 weeks to go, new UNF poll shows Donalds and Jolly neck and neck

Ryan Gillespie, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 21, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla, — A University of North Florida poll released Wednesday shows Republican Byron Donalds with a two-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in the race to be the state’s next governor, meaning with less than two weeks to go before Election Day the contest is a dead heat.

The survey of 1,471 likely voters also shows Republican Ashley Moody with a four-point edge over Democrat Angie Nixon in the race for a U.S. Senate seat.

Both races have tightened considerably from July, when UNF’s poll showed Donalds up five percentage points in his race and Moody leading by eight in her.

Florida is a red state with Republicans holding a 1.5 million voter advantage over Democrats.

Sean Freeder, the faculty director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said the latest findings reflect national headwinds for Republicans and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump.

“Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race, similar to the race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which was won by less than a percentage point. Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising,” he said.

The poll showed 49% of Florida voters favored Donalds and 47% wanted Jolly with the rest undecided.

UNF’s July poll, which showed Donalds with a bigger lead, was done before the heated GOP primary, where the Congressman from Naples prevailed but, as the heavy favorite, was also the target of relentless attacks from his opponents.

Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Tampa Bay who became a Democrat last year, is running as a moderate looking to win over independents and Republicans turned off by Trump’s MAGA movement.

Freeder noted that despite Donalds efforts to win over Black voters, the poll found just 10% plan to vote for him, only a percentage point higher than the number planning to cast a ballot for Moody.

If he wins, Donalds would be Florida’s first Black governor.

The Senate race also changed after the August primary. The expectation was that the Democratic Party’s favored candidate, Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, would win, but Nixon pulled off a shocking victory, despite being vastly out-funded.

In that race, 49% of those recently surveyed said they would vote for Moody and 45% for Nixon.

Pollsters asked the voters about the top two lines of attack Moody and Nixon have lobbed at each other: 30% said Democrats tying Moody to the Hope Florida grand jury made it less likely they’d support her, while 25% said Republicans highlighting Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America would make it less likely to support her.

Among those surveyed, 50% of voters with no party affiliation said they support Nixon, compared with 35% for Moody. In the governor’s race, 55% of those NPA voters back Jolly, compared with 38% for Donalds.

The survey also explored hot-button issues expected to weigh heavily on voters next month, such as the candidate they trust most on property insurance, affordability and data centers.

Donalds holds a five-point edge on Jolly on property insurance, while Jolly is trusted slightly more on affordability concerns and has a four-point advantage on data centers.

Voters were also asked about their support for Amendment 3 — the proposed amendment to the state constitution that would hike homestead exemptions to $150,00 in 2027 and to $250,000 the following year. The measure would slash property tax bills for property owners, but it also would lead to lost revenue for cities and counties and likely lead to reduced local services.

The poll found 50% plan to vote yes, compared with 35% intending to vote no, with the remainder undecided. Amendments to the state constitution require 60% support to become law.

Freeder said the amendment’s fate is likely to be determined by undecided voters.

“This appears to be another tight race that will ultimately depend upon which way last-minute undecideds swing,” he said in a news release. “Most of these voters would need to vote yes in order to put Amendment 3 above 60%, a challenging but possible outcome. Political science research shows that it’s easier to use messaging to persuade voters on policy more than on candidates, so the last-minute advertising by each campaign could make a big difference.”

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