Pressure builds on Iran as Trump boosts US military presence

Seven months into war with the U.S., Iran’s leaders are feeling the strain.

Inflation in the Islamic Republic is almost 90%, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering despite continued Iranian attacks, and President Donald Trump is sending another aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the region. A U.S. blockade is choking off Iran’s crude exports, while diplomacy remains deadlocked.

Even for a regime accustomed to sanctions and economic hardship, that is a punishing combination.

The squeeze matters because it could force Iran into a choice: make concessions to try to revive peace talks or escalate a conflict that’s already damaging its economy. Trump’s domestic situation will likely influence Tehran’s thinking. The U.S. leader also is in a bind, with oil around $100 a barrel and high fuel prices hurting U.S. consumers ahead of November midterm elections.

“Everyone has a breaking point, and Iran is no exception,” Bader Al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University, said. He cited Iran’s recent proposal of a seven-day truce and a Bloomberg report that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has suggested restoring access for United Nations nuclear inspectors — in return for sanctions relief — as evidence of the increasing burden.

“The irony is that such pressure can yield opposing responses: concessions or a preemptive strike,” he added.

Iran’s economic situation is extremely painful but the country is adapting, according to one Tehran official, who asked not to be identified so they could speak candidly. The Islamic Republic is preparing for a fresh U.S. bombing campaign, potentially greater than before, but has the ability to respond, the official said.

Iran’s biggest source of leverage throughout the war, which began in late February with a U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign on the Islamic Republic, has been its ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is a vital conduit for energy and other commodities. The disruption has driven up the price of oil and natural gas and fueled global inflation, imposing a political cost on Trump at home.

But Iran’s grip over the waterway — and its ability to constrain Gulf Arab oil exports — is weakening. Saudi crude exports jumped to about 6.1 million barrels a day in September from 3.4 million in August, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. JPMorgan estimates Middle East crude shipments have recovered to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of prewar levels.

Still, there is debate about whether Iran still holds the upper hand over the maritime choke point. One senior defense official in the region said Iran retains a large degree of control over the strait. Another senior energy official stressed that Tehran’s grip was loosening, despite frequent hits on vessels.

Overnight, a British Navy-sponsored organization said it received a report of a crude-oil tanker being struck by an unknown projectile around four miles off the coast of Oman. All crew members were reported as safe, it said.

“Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz has changed,” said Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the University of South Florida. “The gradual increase in oil shipments suggests the U.S. is finding ways to reassure tanker operators about the safety of transit. At the same time, I think shipping companies are gradually moving beyond the initial panic stage and beginning to accept instability in the Strait of Hormuz as part of the new reality.”

Iranian officials see little prospect of a peace deal before the U.S. midterms on Nov. 3 and believe there’s a high chance of escalation after that, Bloomberg reported earlier this week. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Friday said it’s ready to deliver an “immediate, painful, regret-inducing response” to any aggression by the U.S. or Israel.

“Both sides generally want an agreement, but they are moving further apart rather than closer,” Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told Bloomberg Television. With Gulf Arab states’ oil exports rising, she said, “the U.S. feels stronger in the Strait of Hormuz compared to a few weeks ago.”

Iran’s fading influence over the strait comes on top of a dire economic situation at home. Soaring inflation is eroding what ordinary Iranians can afford, and the rial has lost about 25% of its value against the dollar in the past two months, making imported goods more expensive.

In September, Iran shipped no crude on tankers, according to preliminary Bloomberg estimates. It was the first time that has happened since the start of the war, underscoring the increasing effectiveness of the U.S. blockade on its ports.

“For the first time in history, since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday in an interview with Axios. “They will have no revenues.”

Iran is still supplying some Chinese refiners from stockpiles of oil shipped earlier and located in Asia. But those may soon run down, further cutting off the government’s most important source of revenue.

Tehran has redirected more trade via land borders and the Caspian Sea, but those routes cannot fully offset the squeeze. State media reported increased truck traffic and delays at crossings with Turkey and Pakistan in September, while the Caspian gives Tehran a sea link to its ally Russia.

Washington is broadening its economic pressure. On Oct. 1, it imposed sanctions on Iran’s largest automakers and several rail companies. Earlier measures on the aviation sector are starting to bite. Iranian flights to the United Arab Emirates were halted in late September as governments and airport operators responded to the threat of secondary sanctions, and flights to Iraq, Turkey and Oman have also been disrupted.

The economic burden is especially dangerous for Iran because the war began only weeks after security forces crushed nationwide protests over soaring prices and a collapsing currency, killing thousands of demonstrators. The government is now trying to ease the pressure on its budget without reigniting unrest.

In September, officials cut some gasoline subsidies — a measure that sparked deadly protests back in 2019. This week, Tehran’s municipality fixed the prices of 12 essential food items for six months through its network of municipal markets.

Military brinkmanship

Trump has shown a renewed appetite for military brinkmanship as the midterms approach. He said this week that heavier strikes on Iran were “possible” after the Nov. 3 vote, while the Pentagon is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier as well as additional forces toward the Middle East.

The ship’s arrival could give the U.S. three carrier strike groups in the region, a concentration not seen in the area since the opening phase of the U.S.-led war on Iraq in 2003. It’s unclear, however, whether one of the other carriers will leave once the Roosevelt arrives in the coming weeks.

“The U.S. is mirroring Iran’s approach, willing to strike a deal or go back to active combat,” said Kuwait University’s Bader Al-Saif. “But if both sides don’t give in and agree on sequencing and clear concessions, a return to war is inevitable.”

Trump has repeatedly threatened attacks he ultimately did not carry out. In July, he vowed to hit bridges and power plants in response to attacks on shipping only to pull back at the last minute. Even so, the approaching midterms and voter disapproval of his handling of the war are giving him an incentive to break the stalemate.

Iran may feel it can withstand the pain until Trump buckles.

“Questions remain about U.S. willingness to continue this strategy and effort over the long term given the very real strain it’s putting on U.S. naval forces,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East at the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

Iran’s hard-liners “are betting that they can absorb more domestic pain and wait out U.S. engagement in the region,” he said.

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(With assistance from Golnar Motevalli, Abeer Abu Omar and Julius Domoney.)