Hurricane center ups odds for 2 Atlantic systems to develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 23, 2026

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The National Hurricane Center on Sunday increased the odds that both a tropical wave headed for the Atlantic and a system near Bermuda could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. advisory, the system of more concern to Florida is a tropical wave expected to move into the eastern Atlantic from off the west African coast on Monday.

“An area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.”

The NHC gave the system a 50% chance to develop within seven days.

The other system, Invest 95, being tracked by the NHC is an area of low pressure with some thunderstorm activity located about 400 miles southeast of Bermuda, which has shown more signs of organization.

“Further development of the low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 40% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

The NHC ceased tracking a third system that was off the coast of Portugal on Sunday.

So far the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has been slow with only three named systems: Tropical storms Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal.

The next names on the list are Dolly and Edouard.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier this month updated its seasonal forecast and now expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already, 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season has just begun and runs through mid-October.

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