Tropical Storm Lala is gaining strength as it approaches Hawaii, with a potentially historic landfall possible this weekend.

As of Thursday morning Hawaii time, Tropical Storm Lala was a newly formed storm located 680 miles southeast of Hilo with maximum winds of 45 mph.

Over the coming days, Lala will gain strength as it approaches the Big Island and the southern side of the Hawaiian Islands. Warmer sea surface temperatures fueled by El Niño and a lack of wind shear — horizontal differences in wind through the atmosphere — will allow Lala to steadily ramp up its maximum wind speeds day by day.

By early Saturday afternoon, Lala is forecast to be a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane near the southern side of the Big Island. And if Lala’s center were to move onshore as a hurricane, it would be the first hurricane on record to make landfall on Hawaii’s Big Island.

And regardless of whether Lala’s center makes landfall or stays just offshore to the south, strong winds and rain will still push into Hilo and much of the Big Island. This was the case two years ago, when Hurricane Hone’s center passed 50 miles to the south of the Big Island and produced more than 20 inches of rain in some spots and wind gusts reached 70 mph. In 2018, Hurricane Lane squeezed out a mind-boggling 4 feet of rain across the eastern side of the Big Island.

Hawaii’s intense topography can induce heavy localized flooding events as air is forced up the mountain slopes. The Big Island’s Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea both tower over the surrounding open ocean at more than 13,600 feet. This intense orographic lift will squeeze out additional moisture as heavy rain on the windward side of these mountains. In this case, those most intense rains would be in areas near Hilo and Volcanoes National Park, while downsloping winds could be boosted on the leeward side near Kona.

These drenching rains are expected to begin for the eastern side of the Big Island on Friday and continue through the weekend. Flash flooding and mudslides will be probable, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For the rest of the Hawaiian Islands, rain will continue through the entire weekend, with the heaviest winds expected to remain just south of Oahu, Maui and the chain’s other major islands.

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