Hurricane center forecasts Atlantic system to become tropical depression this week

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 11, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday kept the odds high that an Atlantic system could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm this week.

If it were to spin up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Cristobal.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the area of low pressure has limited shower and thunderstorm activity located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the central tropical Atlantic.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives the system a 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% chance in the next seven.

A tropical wave ahead of the system that had previously been given low chances to develop is now forecast to have no chance, but does have disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands in the Caribbean.

“The system is expected to encounter a large area of environmental dry air as it approaches the Windward Islands, and development is not expected,” forecasters said. “Locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible in the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves through the area.”

The NHC was still giving a small chance for a system several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda to develop, though, but it’s moving away from the U.S. into the open Atlantic.

“Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves eastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

So far the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has been slow with only two named systems – tropical storms Arthur and Bertha.

After Cristobal, the next names on the list are Dolly and Edouard.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its seasonal forecast stating it expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes, and a prediction that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already 2026 was predicted to have lower than average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season, though, has yet to begin with it running between mid-August and mid-October.

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