Hurricane center ups odds on 1 Atlantic system while tracking 2 others

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 10, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased the odds a system in the Atlantic could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm while keeping tabs on two more systems.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the most developed of the three was an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple of days,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westwardto west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.”

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two days, but a 60% chance in the next seven.

Already closer to the Caribbean, but less developed, is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

“Some gradual development of this system is possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across thecentral tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “Upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable for development later in the week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.”

The NHC reduced its chances since Sunday from 20% to only 10% that it could develop in the next seven days.

A third Atlantic system popped up on the NHC’s radar late Sunday, a trough of low pressure with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda and headed away from the U.S. coast.

“Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of Bermuda, across the western and central subtropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation after Wednesday.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

So far the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has been slow with only two named systems – tropical storms Arthur and Bertha.

The next names on the list are Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this past week updated its seasonal forecast stating it expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes, and a prediction that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already 2026 was predicted to have lower than average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season, though, has yet to begin with it running between mid-August and mid-October.