Squeezed UK defense plan leaves many hard choices to Burnham

The U.K.’s defense spending plan leaves several hard choices for Andy Burnham to make on the future security of the nation.

The government rejected calls to boost defense spending to 3% of economic output in 2030 — the year NATO has said the block must be prepared for a Russian attack — instead promising to spend 2.7% by the end of the decade and choosing to backload key funding decisions.

Keir Starmer unveiled his long-delayed defense investment plan on Tuesday, in what looks to be one of his last major policy announcements as prime minister. While the additional £15 billion in spending included in the plan takes clear steps to modernize the British armed forces, it’s only marginally larger than the earlier £13.5 billion draft that prompted then-Defense Secretary John Healey’s dramatic resignation earlier this month.

“We have made tough choices, to stop doing things which were designed for another age, and invest in capabilities fit for the next war, not the last one,” Healey’s replacement, Dan Jarvis, said in the foreward of the 80-page plan. Jarvis faced repeated questions about while announcing it in the House of Cmmons on Tuesday.

Despite being a 10-year plan, it’s only been funded for the next four years — at a cost of £298 billion ($390 billion) — leaving uncertainty over how projects between 2030 and 2035 will be funded. The government said that would be left to future spending reviews to give the next government — likely to be led by Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester — flexibility to respond to emerging threats and future investment conditions.

“This plan represents our best judgment of what the country needs to meet this moment and it is a platform on which I know my successor will build,” Starmer said on Tuesday in a speech at a drone company in Berkshire. Though the government said “defense will be the No. 1 priority” in next year’s review, Starmer refused to say whether that had been agreed by Burnham, risking the promise being made redundant within weeks.

How Burnham will approach defense is a topic of intense speculation as Westminster prepares for him to assume leadership of the governing Labour Party as soon as July 17. While Starmer’s two-year tenure has been consumed by foreign crises, including wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public questioning of NATO, Burnham has limited diplomatic experience and has said little of his foreign policy plans.

“Can the secretary of state tell us if the putative prime minister has been consulted on the DIP, and most importantly, has he given it his blessing?” James Cartlidge, the defense spokesperson for the opposition Conservative Party, asked in Parliament. “If not, is the DIP, even worth the paper it’s written on.”

Choices made to resolve the plan includes £10.7 billion in “efficiency savings” through cutting the Ministry of Defense’s civil service workforce, money spent on consultants and greater use of technology like artificial intelligence. In addition, a number of programs are being cut, pushed back or retired early.

Bloomberg reported on Monday that plans for a Type 83 destroyer would no longer go ahead, the purchase of 12 new U.S.-made F35-A jets able to carry tactical nuclear weapons would be pushed back and programs to recruit new cadets and refurbish military accommodation would be slowed down.

The Type 32 frigate will also not go ahead, making way for a new “hybrid navy” coupling other warships with uncrewed vessels. Britain’s Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft, some Wildcat Battlefield Reconnaissance helicopters, the oldest model of its Chinook helicopters and its older Type 23 Frigates would also be retired earlier, as is already underway.

The U.K.’s multirole strike ship program to build up to six amphibious warfare ships has also been canceled, with Britain choosing to look for opportunities with the Dutch led Amphibious Transport Ship Program instead.

“The Defense Investment Plan provides much-needed clarity for industry and a clear strategic direction for our armed forces,” BAE Systems Plc Chief Executive Officer Charles Woodburn said in a statement. “The government’s commitment to increased defense spending is vital to sustaining the specialist skills across our industrial base critical to national security, while also signaling to our adversaries that the U.K. is serious about its defense.”

The government is also canceling plans to procure a new narrowband satellite system, instead choosing to extend its current a constellation of four military communications satellites instead. The U.K. will also pivot from investing in the storm shadow long-range missiles that Ukraine has relied on against Russia to MBDA’s next-generation Stratus missiles which it said would allow it to buy more missiles at a reduced overall cost.

Defense Minister Luke Pollard told reporters that this plan was designed to be scaled-up “to deliver the spend that we get” in future funding decisions and said he hoped more money will be spent faster.

But some of the nation’s compromises on defense have been left for the next premier to decide as a result of not yet funding the full 10-year plan, essentially forcing the government to backload certain key decisions.

The government couldn’t say when exactly it would buy the F35-A planes, how many uncrewed vessels would be procured for its more autonomous naval fleet and how many Stratus missiles it would buy and on what timescale, instead pointing to future reviews and decisions.

Still, £790 million has been allocated for new integrated air- and missile-defense systems. Some £3.2 billion would be spent on space capabilities, £2.5 billion for cyberdefense, £330 million for the protection of critical underwater infrastructure and £11.1 billion on munitions and weapons which included a £400 million boost to the £6 billion promised to build a series of munitions factories.

Despite concerns around the Ajax fighting vehicles, after a review into reports that soldiers became sick after training in them, the program will receive £1.1 billion over the next four years.

The plan also commits to investing more than £63 billion on Britain’s nuclear deterrent and other nuclear programs. That includes the AUKUS submarine program, though the government doesn’t set out what precise money it’s spending on the project because of national security sensitivities. The GCAP fighter jet project with Italy and Japan gets £8.6 billion over the next four years, more than expected.

Despite a push by military chiefs and previous Healey to commit to 3% of defense spending by 2030, the plan says that won’t currently be met until the next parliament, which is due to end in 2034.

Jarvis was able to persuade the Treasury to hand him £15 billion in additional funding for the plan — £1.5 billion more than what Healey was offered — though defense officials conceded that only £11.6 billion of that represents a cash increase funded by cuts to other departments. The remaining £3.4 billion is as a result of the Treasury now holding responsibility for a series of potential future costs, for example security guarantees for Ukraine.

The additional £1.5 billion Jarvis secured represents £400 million for the Treasury’s new multi-national defense funding mechanism, £600 million more for autonomous systems and a £500 mil boost to day-to-day military spending designed to alleviate some cost pressures in the shorter-term, officials said.

—With assistance from Kate Duffy.