Hurricane center forecasts system could develop off Florida coast

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jun 28, 2026

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The National Hurricane Center on Sunday continued to project a system could form in the Atlantic off the coast of Florida early this week.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the forecast calls for a low pressure area to form along the western end of a frontal system on Monday or Tuesday and threaten the southeastern United States.

“Subsequent gradual development of this system is possible for a couple of days while it drifts westward,” forecasters said. “By the end of this week, conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.”

The NHC, which began tracking the potential system on Saturday, gives the system only a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

If it develops, it could become a tropical depression or if powerful enough, be the second named storm of the season following the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur that developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana earlier this month.

The next name on the hurricane season list is Bertha.

For now, the National Weather Service in Melbourne only forecasts the weak trough or surface boundary moving toward north Florida early in the week that could boost rain chances near Central Florida beginning Monday afternoon while also contributing to climbing heat indices in the 103-109 degree range.

As the forecast low pressure area forms offshore of northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, normal rain chances are in store for the Orlando area.

Hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

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