BALTIMORE — Seventeen percent more Marylanders cast ballots during early voting this year than in the state’s last midterm primary, a surge analysts attribute in part to competitive congressional races, economic concerns and heightened political engagement.

As of June 18, 201,600 Marylanders had cast early voting ballots, compared with 172,266 in 2022, with some of the largest gains occurring in Maryland’s most competitive congressional races, specifically in the 5th and 6th districts.

More than 32,000 voters participated in early voting in the 5th District, a roughly 6% increase from 2022, according to the Maryland State Board of Elections. In the 6th District, more than 21,000 people voted early — a 32% jump over the same period in the last primary.

Political analysts said these districts are competitive because candidates are spending thousands of dollars to appeal to voters. In the 5th District, voters have options to choose from, they said, making the congressional race tougher to win.

“The fact that we actually have a competitive race for once has gotten some people interested who may have decided to sit it out before,” said Niambi Carter, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy.

Why early voter participation increased

The 5th District Democratic primaries have drawn 23 Democratic candidates, including Maryland State Del. Adrian Boafo and businesswoman Quincy Bareebe, among others.

In the 6th District Democratic primaries, incumbent U.S. Rep. April McClain Delaney is running against former Rep. David Trone, her predecessor, seeking a comeback after a failed Senate campaign.

Analysts said competitive races, concerns about rising costs, and frustration with government over federal job losses have given voters more reason to participate than in previous cycles.

Carter said the dynamics in the 5th District race are especially unusual, with no clear successor emerging and traditional political signals — endorsements, fundraising and establishment — not pointing to a clear frontrunner.

Jason Johnson, a political science professor at Morgan State University, said broader economic anxiety and political frustration have also driven turnout. Johnson added that over 30,000 federal workers in Maryland losing their jobs had a ripple effect on the state’s overall economy, while grocery, energy and housing prices have risen.

“People want a return on investment. You have a job market where literally the vast majority of people who are employed still do not feel safe in their jobs,” he said.

Campaigns across the 5th District invested heavily in door-knocking, direct mail, advertising and community events in an effort to boost turnout.

“The knocks on the door were never about who are you voting for,” said Mark McLaurin, Democratic candidate Quincy Bareebe’s campaign manager. “They were about what keeps you up at night.”

Ned Miller, an advisor for McClain Delaney, said her campaign prioritized traditional voter engagement while investing thousands of dollars in ads that highlighted the congresswoman’s record while also attacking Trone.

High turnout ≠ Electoral wins

Across both races, Carter said campaign spending has helped amplify voter contact. Matthew Crenson, a political science professor at Johns Hopkins, said early voting turnout could also be attributed to “money and name recognition” of the candidates, specifically in the 6th district race.

Still, Carter said, spending does not guarantee electoral outcomes, particularly in races where voter attitudes are volatile and traditional political cues are weakened.

“People are more inclined to remember the person that put that mailer in their mailbox than the person that they never received one from, or maybe only the commercial,” Carter said, noting that she has received more election literature this year than in previous cycles.

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