Trump's pro-Israel Gaza plan seen as unlikely to sway Hamas

U.S. President Donald Trump’s new plan to end the war in Gaza is essentially an ultimatum to Hamas to release hostages, give up arms and surrender — or face the full force of the Israeli military with Washington’s explicit blessing.

Trump said Israel would have his “full backing to finish the job” if Hamas rejects the offer, and Israeli troops and tanks are now in the heart of Gaza City, from which 800,000 Palestinians have fled.

In that sense, the proposal is familiar — and one that Hamas has repeatedly rejected over the course of the war.

Israel has said for most of the past two years that the war could end tomorrow if Hamas returned the hostages, disarmed and went into exile. The new approach also makes no meaningful, immediate offer of Palestinian statehood, a goal much of the world supports.

Trump’s 20-point plan, announced at a joint news conference at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, does have new elements, including an offer of amnesty to any Hamas operative who hands over his weapons and commits to coexistence.

It also backs away from Trump’s earlier notion of driving Gazans into exile, promises a vast increase in aid and global involvement to rebuild the devastated coastal enclave.

Markets rose on the prospect of a ceasefire deal being reached. Israel’s shekel jumped to its strongest level against the dollar in more than three years on Monday, after Trump said Netanyahu had agreed to his plan. On Tuesday, the local benchmark stock index rose to a record before paring some of the gains.

The key question is whether the leaders of Hamas feel sufficiently defeated and pressured to finally accept an offer they have long rejected. Hamas, which the U.S. and European Union designate a terrorist group, considers itself a resistance movement dedicated to the destruction of Israel.

Trump, speaking to reporters on Tuesday, claimed that the group had “paid a big price” — including the decimation multiple times over of key leadership — after its Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which might make them more inclined to take the deal. Hamas had “about three or four days” to decide, he added.

“What we want is very simple: we want the hostages back immediately, and we want some good behavior,” Trump said. “Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it’s not, it’s going to be a very sad end.”

Mediators Egypt and Qatar have handed the U.S. proposal to Hamas, Egyptian state-run TV channel Al Qahera reported, citing a security official. The group has yet to say whether or not it accepts it.

Qatar and Turkey — traditional allies of Hamas — welcomed Trump’s proposal as a positive step toward an end to the war, in a statement co-signed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and several other Muslim-majority countries. The joint comment signals the Iran-backed group will be under pressure to accept the deal.

Netanyahu on Monday called Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to express “deep regret” for a deadly missile strike last month that targeted Hamas figures in Doha, the U.S. government said, part of Trump’s efforts to ensure regional parties are on board.

“What’s fundamentally different now is Hamas is going to face a level of pressure from a united, not just Arab, but Muslim world leadership that wants to see the war end and has signed on broadly to this outline of points,” said Jonathan Panikoff, of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program.

‘Expect a No’

Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute who resigned from the U.S. State Department in protest over its Gaza policy, said the U.S. can “expect a ‘no’ from Hamas,” which she added will then be used to “portray the Palestinians as standing in the way of peace.”

Many advocates for the Palestinians dismissed the plan as a sop to Israel.

“It’s an attempt to create American sponsored political cover for the continuation of genocide in Gaza, at a time where the entire world is rejecting that,” said Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine-Israel program at the Arab Center in Washington.

A United Nations-commissioned report concluded last month Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

Netanyahu will have his own political challenges with this plan, which could lead to the collapse of his own government and force early elections, which are not due for another year.

Coalition ministers to his right want to annex both Gaza and the West Bank, which the plan spurns.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the most senior of the far-right partners, said on X the plan is “a resounding diplomatic failure.” He said he would hold unspecified consultations regarding his full response.

The plan says that if the Palestinian Authority, which administers part of the West Bank, reforms itself sufficiently in coming years, it could lead to “a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”

While the vague assurance of an eventual pathway to statehood is unlikely to win over supporters of a Palestinian state, any reference at all to Palestinian sovereignty could kill the deal among Israelis who view it as rewarding the October 2023 Hamas attack that triggered the conflict.

Statehood language is particularly anathema to the increasingly powerful settler movement in Israel, which is heavily represented in the current government.

There are also no timelines in the plan specified for Israeli military redeployment, nor for the reform of the Palestinian Authority, which could allow Israel to drag things out.

The war in Gaza began almost two years ago when thousands of Hamas operatives attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250. The Israeli counteroffensive has killed 66,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, and precipitated a humanitarian crisis.

“This is an opening,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team in the early 2000s. “A lot of the devil is in the details, but this is the most pressure I have seen,” to bring the war to an end.

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—With assistance from Eric Martin, Magdalena Del Valle and Hadriana Lowenkron.