Venezuelans see Maduro weakening, pin hopes on US and Machado, poll finds

Antonio María Delgado, Miami Herald on Sep 25, 2025

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A new nationwide survey suggests Venezuelans believe President Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power is slipping, with a strong majority rejecting his legitimacy and looking to opposition leader María Corina Machado — and to a possible U.S. intervention — to bring about change.

The poll, conducted from Aug. 21-31 by London-based research firm Panterra and released this week, surveyed 1,200 residents across the South American country. It found that 70% of Venezuelans no longer identify with the socialist political movement founded by the late president Hugo Chávez.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents — 63% — said Maduro is not a legitimate president. That view reflects the disputed outcome of the July 2024 election, when opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia was widely seen as the actual winner despite the government declaring Maduro victorious.

Among those who don’t support the Maduro regime, the perception is that the government is weakening. More than half of them expect Maduro to be ousted within the next six months, with 36% predicting his fall within three months. A 61% majority said Maduro’s regime is weaker than it was a year ago, while 28% said it is “about the same” and only 11% said it is stronger.

“The sense that the regime is weakening is widespread,” David Bluestone, managing director of Panterra, told the Miami Herald. He noted that increased repression following last year’s election is widely perceived as a sign of desperation. “People are seeing some of the recent moves by the regime as showing their weakness, not showing their strength.”

A series of reports released this week on Venezuela’s deteriorating human-rights conditions found that the regime has intensified its persecution of dissidents, opposition figures and independent activists. The reports include a 165-page document by the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela, which warned that Caracas has pursued “an exacerbated continuation of the plan to annihilate opponents or those perceived as such,” committing acts that amount to crimes against humanity.

The poll also underscores Venezuelans’ growing appetite for international pressure. Three-quarters of those who don’t support the regime favor a strong U.S. policy aimed at removing Maduro.

“Majorities of non-Chavistas favor broad economic sanctions and individual sanctions on those connected to the regime. Support for direct intervention to remove or arrest Maduro is even higher,” the report said, using the term for those who oppose or support the regime founded by former leader Hugo Chávez.

The Panterra poll also highlights the aspirations of Venezuela’s vast diaspora. Eight out of 10 people who don’t support the regime said their relatives in the United States would likely return if the country held democratic elections and chose a new president.

“A majority of non-Chavistas want the U.S. to support the leadership of Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado, with only 16% preferring the U.S. negotiate with Maduro and 5% supporting a third force led by ex-Chavista military officials,” according to poll results.

The survey indicates that President Donald Trump, who has adopted a more hardline approach toward Maduro than previous U.S. administrations, enjoys notable support among Venezuelans opposed to the regime.

Non-Chavistas hold a favorable view of the United States (55% favorable to 28% unfavorable) and of President Trump (44% favorable to 37% unfavorable), with 75% supporting a future alliance between Venezuela and the U.S. Supporters of the regime, by contrast, express overwhelmingly negative views of both the U.S. (6% favorable to 83% unfavorable) and Trump (4% favorable to 88% unfavorable).

Internally, the opposition remains firmly rallied behind Machado. A large majority of non-Chavistas see her as the leader of the opposition and want her to continue fighting for change from within Venezuela. Nearly 78% of non-Chavistas said they trust her leadership and endorse her approach.

Machado’s support has remained stable over the past year, with more than 69% of non-Chavistas wanting her to remain as opposition leader. A majority also believe she is “on the right path” and making real progress despite government repression.