Netanyahu coalition in crisis over religious draft as war rages

Then came the Oct. 7 attack, when thousands of Hamas militants surged into Israel, killing 1,200, abducting 250 and triggering the call-up of hundreds of thousands of soldiers for what has turned into the longest war since the country’s independence 75 years ago.

The vow by Hamas — and similar militias like Hezbollah — to destroy Israel through more invasions has forced a rethinking of the country’s security doctrine, which has relied heavily on technology and intelligence over manpower.

A plan to lengthen military service both for conscripts and reservists is expected to cost 100 billion shekels ($27 billion) over the next decade. If the ultra-Orthodox join the military, that would sharply reduce the hit by freeing up reservists to work.

“There are 66,000 young, draft-age Haredi men,” said opposition leader Yair Lapid. “If you enlist 10,000 of them, there’s no need to extend conscripts’ service. If you enlist 20,000, there won’t be any need to issue any more call-up orders to reservists.”

The high court had given the government a deadline of the end of March to come up with a plan to start drafting Haredim. Netanyahu did, but his attorney general said it wouldn’t really bring Haredim into the military. Netanyahu’s request for more time was rejected, and the deadline stands.

If the Haredim leave the government, that would trigger elections, which aren’t scheduled until 2026. Many suspect they won’t since polls suggest a new government would be less welcoming of their demands.

There’s a growing number of technocrats, business leaders and academics who see the current crisis in Gaza as the opportunity to confront the risk of Haredim pulling the country toward theocratic penury.

Nearly half of ultra-Orthodox men are unemployed, and only 14% have university degrees, according to data from the Finance Ministry. A quarter of children four and younger are ultra-Orthodox, raising questions about how the society will support itself in future.

During last year’s anti-government protests, led by the secular, high-tech sector in Tel Aviv, drafting the Haredim was often invoked. Now, even Netanyahu’s closest partners within his Likud party say the issue can’t be postponed.

Netanyahu’s coalition only has a majority of five in the 120-seat Parliament.

Danny Danon, a Likud parliamentarian, said it’s no longer possible for the Haredim to stay on the margins. They’re needed in the army and in the workplace, he says.

“The Haredim will have to realize something happened on Oct. 7, and they have to contribute more,” he said by phone.

So far, the Haredi leaders, men in their 80s and 90s, have refused to accept any change.