Josh Gottheimer, for example, who co-chairs the Problem Solvers caucus, is a Democrat from a moderate New Jersey district with just a narrow Democratic tilt. The bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus proved critical to the bill’s passage by providing Democratic votes to help the bill survive GOP defections.

Complicating this incentive structure is the currently divided U.S. government. If one party controlled Congress and the presidency, then it would be clear that that party would be blamed in the event the legislation didn’t pass. But with a Democratic president and a GOP House, polling data shows an almost even split in terms of who would be blamed if a debt ceiling deal failed. Thus, both Democrats and Republicans had an incentive to get a deal done.

While there is some debate in political science over the power of presidential coattails, Democrats themselves may believe their future electoral fortunes are at least partially tied to that of President Biden, another incentive to support legislation he backs.

From here, the deal goes to the Senate, where moderates may be just as influential.

Given the smaller size of the upper chamber and the Democrats’ narrow majority, the influence of individual senators is more pronounced. The deal already contains a victory for West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, a Democrat looking at a brutal reelection fight in 2024. The bill contained approval for a natural gas pipeline project in his state that Manchin has championed.

Although the Senate vote is still pending, the House debt ceiling maneuvering demonstrates that the middle, while shrinking, continues to matter.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. Like this article? Subscribe to our weekly newsletter.

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Matt Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.