FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — AccuWeather on Wednesday released its seasonal forecast, predicting a “potentially explosive” hurricane season this summer and fall.

The season runs June 1 to the end of November, but there is the potential for tropical systems — storms that gain their energy from hot sea surface temperatures as opposed to a front – forming early this year.

The forecast called for 20 to 25 named storms, with eight to 12 of those strengthening into hurricanes, and four to six of those storms potentially directly impacting the U.S. An average season has 14 named storms.

By contrast, the 2023 season had 20 named storms with seven hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia was the only 2023 storm to make landfall in the U.S., striking the Big Bend region of Florida on Aug. 30 as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds.

Most of 2023’s tropical systems arced north over the Atlantic before reaching the U.S.

“All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva in a news release.

A key measure of a hurricane season’s power is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, which tallies the intensity and lifespan of tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin over the course of a year.

The norm is a score of 123. Last year, an above-normal year according to the National Weather Service, had a score of 145.6. AccuWeather is predicting this year will reach a score of 175-225.

Hot water

Warm water fuels tropical weather systems and helps them leap up to hurricane power. Currently, water temperatures off the west coast of Africa, where many tropical weather systems form, are abnormally high.

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