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Sean Keeler: Broncos' trade deadline moves should have helped Bo Nix the way Chiefs helped Patrick Mahomes

Sean Keeler, The Denver Post on

Published in Football

DENVER — The Denver Broncos almost Goedert done.

Alas, as of late Tuesday afternoon, as the 2026 NFL trade deadline came and went, tight end Dallas Goedert remained a Philadelphia Eagle. And running back Jonathan Taylor was still the best thing about a 2-7 Indianapolis Colts squad.

Instead of taking a home-run swing for quarterback Bo Nix at the deadline, the Broncos bunted.

As an acquisition, new Denver linebacker Daiyan Henley, plucked from the Chargers, feels more like a safety squeeze.

Yes, he’s a dude. Heck, he’s probably even an upgrade over Justin Strnad, with the kind of youth and upside that could even spell Alex Singleton one day. Good player, good guy, super backstory. Bolts Nation, all five of them, are furious, which is a good sign. Henley’s in a “walk” year, too, so if you don’t extend him, you’d be in line for a compensatory draft pick in return. That’s a win, no matter how you parse it.

But “cover linebacker?” With all those other holes? As Broncos needs go, that was about third on most fans’ lists — and a distant third, at that.

Your running back room is still a committee of unproven parts. Your tight end room is still the Island of Misfit Toys.

And your quarterback still needs help. Help moving the chains. Help between the hashmarks. Help staying on the field, most of all.

Broncos Country has every right to be disappointed at general manager George Paton and coach Sean Payton. Because the biggest weaknesses on, yes, a very good 7-2 team, one that’s very much in the Super Bowl hunt, still … umm … haven’t been addressed.

The Broncos head into their Week 10 bye ranked 31st out of 32 NFL offenses in third-down conversion rate (32.4%), and 28th in average time of possession (28:36 per game). They’ve only won the TOP tussle in just three of the season’s opening nine games. They’re second in the NFL in punts (44); of the teams who’ve already punted it 40 times or more this season, only the Broncos and Cleveland (5-4) have winning records.

Vance Joseph’s Broncos defense, meanwhile, leads the NFL in snaps played per game. This is one reason, per TruMedia, Denver ranks 15th in defensive expected points added per play and 29th in EPA per “designed” rush. This is a defense you can gash early, as the Chiefs did in Week 1; or pound late, the way the Panthers did in Week 9.

One sure way to save those defenders’ legs and lungs? Have enough weapons around Nix to convert third downs, eat up clock, and matriculate the ball downfield, as ol’ Hank Stram liked to say.

Goedert ticked a lot of those boxes. This season, he’s managed 10 receptions on 11 third-down targets for 127 yards, two touchdowns, and six first downs — with a 90.9% catch rate on his third-down targets.

 

Pro-Football-Reference.com defines “Offensive Success Rate” as a player who picks up 40% of a required distance on first down; 60% of it on second down; and 100% of it on third down or fourth down — and, for rush yardage, anything over 50% is considered superlative. Taylor has a 53.4% success rate on rushes this season and a 51.0% rate for his career. Titans RB Tony Pollard, another trade deadline target, is sporting a 46.6% success rate this season and has a lifetime rate of 48.4%. JK Dobbins’ success rate after nine games in 2026: 38.8%, down from 53.6% a year ago. Jonah Coleman’s rate: 51.1%; RJ Harvey’s rate: 50%, and 45.9% for his young career.

Insiders say the Colts would only move Taylor for a first-round pick, most likely with a third-day sweetener thrown in. The Broncos were just $4.6 million under the NFL’s 2026 salary cap, according to OverTheCap.com, as of Tuesday, and Taylor ($16.1 million cap number this season), Pollard ($9.25 million) or Goedert ($10.2 million) wouldn’t have come cheap.

But will a late first-round pick with a second-round grade on a rookie contract be worth more in three years than Taylor will be now? Or more than what an upgrade at tight end would be, at least while Nix is comparatively cheap?

If you’re serious about winning a Super Bowl, you have tackle this postseason chase from the top down. The Broncos (7-2) had the best record in the AFC last year. The way the Bills (7-1), Chiefs (6-2), Jaguars (6-2), Bengals (6-2) and Steelers (6-2) are playing at home this year, you’re going to want the No. 1 seed this January, too.

Only three of the biggest AFC contenders, on paper, got more out of the deadline than you did. The Bills, coming off a win at Minnesota so convincing that the Vikings felt the need to immediately (and desperately) re-acquire QB Kirk Cousins, landed safety Amani Hooker from Tennessee. The Jaguars upgraded on defense with safety Jessie Bates III and defensive linemen Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux.

Trade deadline FOMO always feels worse when your biggest rival addresses their greatest need, and at a bargain price. Chiefs QB/serial whiner Patrick Mahomes has been throwing to a 52-year-old Travis Kelce, an unreliable Xavier Worthy, and a lot of whatever-dudes. But he’s still Mahomes. And the Chiefs front office just nailed a swap with the Colts that the Broncos didn’t for a core piece of Indy’s offense.

For a fourth-round and a fifth-round pick, Kansas City snatched up Indy wide receiver Josh Downs, who’s acting like he just hit the lottery, celebrating by posting that famous Vince Carter-being-overjoyed-and-overwhelmed meme to his X.com account.

When he’s right, Downs is also a royal pain in the tucchus. In the Colts’ controversial 29-28 win over the Broncos in September 2025, the former North Carolina Tar Heel caught six balls for 51 yards on eight targets. If the Chiefs are inside the Broncos’ 5-yard line again in the playoffs, they just gave VJ’s defense one more serious receiving threat to think about.

Actually, it could give Henley one more thing to think about down the road. Daiyon, 26, played at Nevada for ex-CSU coach Jay Norvell before transferring to Washington State. Kid can run, he can drop and he can blitz — an all-around Swiss Army Knife with wheels, the kind of toy Joseph usually has had all kinds of fun with. Pro Football Focus graded him out at just a 50.1 overall (out of 100) this season so far, with a 38.3 grade on pass coverage. Most likely, he’s a depth piece, depending on the formation, and the next man up if Singleton or Strnad have to miss any time.

Although, other than his 147 total tackles and eight pass break-ups in 2024, Henley’s most impressive stat might be this: Over the last two-and-a-half seasons, he’s averaged 58 defensive snaps per game, per Pro-Football-Reference tracking. Good thing, too. Because with the way this Broncos offense is trending, those lungs will be burning like a Coachella sunset.

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