John Romano: Is a playoff bid guaranteed for the Buccaneers? No. But don't bet against it.

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Nov 10, 2026

Published in Football

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TAMPA, Fla. — I believe.

I believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will lose their next game at Detroit.

I believe they will go on to become just the third team in the last 75 years to start a season at 3-7 and still make the playoffs.

I believe the schedule works in their favor.

Obviously, playing in the NFC’s kiddie pool is the key here. Even with their current 3-6 record, the Bucs are only a half-game out of first place in the NFC South.

And once they get past the Lions game, six of their final seven opponents are currently below .500. A 9-8 record might be a stretch, but it’s not like some pie-in-the-sky fantasy. And it may not even be necessary. Twice in the last four years, the South champion had an 8-9 record. It could happen again.

I believe.

I believe the Bucs are the best team in the NFC South.

I believe that is not a compliment for anyone outside of this neighborhood.

I believe Carolina is fading, New Orleans is vulnerable and Atlanta is erratic.

While no one in the South looks imposing, the Bucs are somewhat respectable. Their point differential for the season is plus-24. That puts them in the middle of the NFC. Green Bay’s point differential is plus-25. And yet the Packers are 6-3 and the Bucs are 3-6.

That suggests Tampa Bay has not had a ton of good fortune. All six Bucs losses have been by a touchdown or less. They have been tied or in the lead in the fourth quarter of six of their nine games. That sounds like a team that is a few plays away from a much better record.

I believe.

I believe the Bucs defense is significantly better than in 2025.

I believe they have fixed the holes in the middle of the defense.

I believe any team giving up less than 20 points per game has playoff potential.

The Bucs have 21 takeaways through nine games. They had 23 in 17 games last season. Is it possible that some of their recent turnovers involved flukes or fortunate bounces? Yeah, that’s possible. May even be likely. But you can’t fake your way to that many game-changing plays.

The pass rush is still not what it needs to be, but opposing quarterbacks do not have time to stand in the pocket and check their phone messages like last year. After a shaky start, Alex Anzalone has been an upgrade. Josiah Trotter has been a huge upgrade. Rueben Bain Jr. is showing signs of life, and the cornerback tandem of Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish has been stellar.

I believe.

I believe Baker Mayfield will play better in the second half.

I believe the running game will eventually lead to more play-action calls.

I believe Zac Robinson’s future as an offensive coordinator depends on it.

Losing Mike Evans hurt this offense more than most of us anticipated. It weakened the vertical passing game, which is a problem. It also exposed how ineffective Tampa Bay receivers are at getting open without the threat of Evans on the field, which is a huge problem.

The bye week comes at a critical moment, because it will allow Robinson to reassess what he’s trying to do on offense. Considering how strong the running game has been with Bucky Irving, it’s almost sinful that Tampa Bay has not been more efficient through the air.

The Bucs have completed only 57.4% of the passes thrown to Emeka Egbuka. That’s far too low for a receiver who is averaging 9.0 yards per catch. Is it Egbuka’s fault? Mayfield’s fault? Robinson’s fault? Yes, yes, yes. And, somehow, it has to get better.

I believe.

I believe Todd Bowles’ strength as a head coach is not panicking.

I believe the way the Bucs played against Chicago shows the team is still hungry.

I believe this will be like 2024 when the Bucs went 6-1 down the stretch against a collection of comically inept opponents.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course. One injury on the offensive line could derail the running game. One slip-up against Carolina could put the Panthers in control of the division. One more pick-six by Mayfield could change the trajectory of the entire franchise.

And yet, I believe the odds are in Tampa Bay’s favor for a playoff spot, even if the standings do not reflect it this morning.

As ugly as things appeared in the first month of the season, the Bucs have since gone 3-2 with one loss in overtime and another on a last-second field goal.

I believe.

Do you?

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