Sports

/

ArcaMax

Sean Keeler: If Broncos trade for Jonathan Taylor, road to Super Bowl runs through Broncos Country

Sean Keeler, The Denver Post on

Published in Football

DENVER — You don’t just scare them. You absolutely freaking terrify them. You’re the NFL’s Leatherface, swinging an orange-and-blue chainsaw at their Super Bowl dreams.

Playoff rematch in Denver? Patrick Mahomes doesn’t want to come back here in January, brother. Not if he can help it. Not after Sunday.

“Every time you play in this stadium, it’s loud. It’s rocking,” the Chiefs quarterback said after losing his third straight contest as a starter at Empower Field, thanks to one of the greatest goal-line stands in recent Broncos history. “And (Denver fans are) emotional and they love it. They’re passionate. We knew that it was going to be a hostile environment. It was loud, like it always is.”

Josh Allen wants no part of Broncos Country in the postseason. Neither does Trevor Lawrence. Or Joe Burrow. Or Aaron Rodgers. If you get Drake Maye off the record, even he might admit he got more than a little lucky in the snow earlier this year.

In this AFC, has home-field advantage ever mattered more in the playoffs? Bo Nix is 19-3 all-time at Empower Field. He’s 12-10 when starting anywhere else. This Broncos defense could win if it had to in Buffalo, Kansas City or Jacksonville. But you don’t want it to come to that.

A 28-24 win over the Chiefs here in Week 8 means the Broncos now control their playoff destiny again. But if they want complete control, if they want to lock the AFC gates and throw away the key, they need to do one more thing:

Trade for Jonathan Taylor.

First-rounder next year. Second-rounder. Whatever it takes. (Expletive) them picks, as Rams general manager Les Snead likes to say. We doing this Super Bowl thing? Or not?

“George (Paton) and I will spend time looking at the team and anywhere we can improve it,” Broncos coach Sean Payton told reporters Monday morning. “But I’m not going to answer questions about internet gossip.”

Oh, they’re talking. Payton knows. You might grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC without Taylor. But add JT to the mix, and you’re the Super Bowl favorites. This offense is Royals Wade Davis in the fourth quarter and Rockies Wade Davis in the 45 minutes leading up to it.

As my Denver Post colleague Parker Gabriel noted, over the last four wins, the Broncos have converted only nine of 48 third-down opportunities since Payton took offensive play-calling duties back from wunderkind Davis Webb.

First down hasn’t exactly been a picnic, either. Not counting penalty yards, the Broncos managed to gain 25 yards on their first 16 first-down plays on Sunday afternoon. Second-and-9 is no way to live, let alone try to move the chains.

Over seven seasons with the Colts, the 27-year-old Taylor has averaged 5.0 yards on first down. He’s averaging 5.0 yards on second down. On third-and-3-yards-or-less, he’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

Not saying one guy “solves” what’s ailing this Broncos offense. Not while it seems Payton and Nix are only in sync at the very start of a game and at the very end, especially when they’re on the clock or playing from behind.

But JT sure does tick an awful lot of boxes, doesn’t he?

NFL running games are pragmatic more than dogmatic. It’s not college or high school, where the best player toting the rock 38-45 times gets you over the line. It’s about backs who minimize risk in one-score or two-score situations, because you’re almost always going to be protecting or chasing a close contest. In this league, your featured backs need to basically do five things:

1. Catch the ball.

2. Block in the passing game.

 

3. Anchor a 4-minute offense with a lead, especially if that lead is eight points or fewer.

4. Score touchdowns when inside the red zone.

5. Don’t turn it over. Like, ever.

For more than a decade, the hip thing has been to divvy those responsibilities up among multiple backs, as long as that back doesn’t “tell” a tendency — run or pass. Your ideal tailback may be better at catching the rock or breaking tackles, but the guy who can do both makes it harder for the defense to read what’s coming. But let’s look at what the Broncos have and whether they fit the checklist.

J.K. Dobbins, first. Catch the ball? They’ve thrown it to him 10 times all season, so nope. Block? Sure. Anchor a 4-minute offense? Not while he’s averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Punching it in from the red zone? Ten carries inside the 10 this season, three touchdowns, a 30% clip. Turn it over? He doesn’t. That’s three out of five.

RJ Harvey? Of those five criteria, he’s a 1. Yes; 2. Sometimes; 3. Sometimes; 4. Yes — Harvey’s carried it 15 times as a Broncos inside the opponents’ 10 and scored on six of them for a 40% conversion rate, so, yes. And yes. So, let’s say three-and-a-half out of five.

Jonah Coleman? 1. Yes; 2. Sometimes; 3. Absolutely; 4. TBD (28.5% conversion rate inside the opponents’ 10 on seven attempts); 5. Yep. So that’s another three-and-a-half out of five.

Taylor? Check, check, check, check and check. Over his career, he’s had 183 carries inside the opponents’ 10-yard line and scored 56 times, a conversion rate of 30.1%.

And it will be pricey. The Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers in October 2022 for four draft picks — a second-rounder, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a fifth-rounder. It’s safe to assume the Colts would demand a first-rounder and change for Taylor, or a package that leads with a second-rounder and multiple other picks. Philadelphia would be asking roughly the same for Saquon Barkley, if not more, if the Eagles’ star back were on the trade block.

And no, the fine print isn’t kind. OverTheCap.com estimated the Broncos had only $4.4 million in cap space as of this past Friday, the ninth-worst budget crunch in the NFL. The law firm of Payton & Paton has worked plenty of accounting magic in the past, though the margins are awfully tight. Especially since Taylor has a $21 million cap hit in ’27 and a $22.98 million hit in ’28. Barkley is guaranteed just $2.5 million next season and has no guaranteed money scheduled for ’28, with cap hits of $13.05 million and $17.36 million over the next two seasons, per Spotrac.

Nix’s rookie deal takes up only $5.08 million of cap space this season and $5.9 million next fall. If the Broncos exercise a fifth-year option for Nix in 2028, OverTheCap.com estimates the cap hit could jump to $29.9 million in three seasons. Based on market rates, Nix’s reps are almost certainly seeking $45-$50 million per year in a long-term contract.

Meanwhile, here are the Broncos on expiring contracts after this season, also via Spotrac: Evan Engram, Brandon Jones, Riley Moss, Ja’Quan McMillian, Jarrett Stidham, Marvin Mims, Ben Powers, Eyioma Uwazurike, JL Skinner, Tyler Badie, Dondrea Tillman, Alex Forsyth, Frank Crum and Sam Ehlinger.

That’s … a lot. Which means even if it’s not “never” for this core, it most certainly is “now.”

Imagine Taylor moving the chains. Imagine the TV cameras fixated on Allen sitting on the visitors’ bench at Empower, bored, wondering if he’ll get another shot at a ring. Or getting a close-up of Mahomes, standing on the sideline, chewing on a worn-out mouthpiece, watching his season waste away.

Imagine the noise. All that beautiful, beautiful noise.

“The crowd (here),” Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton said, “is the best in the world.”

And that Super Bowl path is there for the taking. Getting Taylor would ensure that The Road To SoFi runs through Bryant Street. Where it belongs.


©2026 MediaNews Group, Inc. Visit at denverpost.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

Comments

blog comments powered by Disqus