Sam Farmer's Week 4 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted an 8-8 (.500) record. Through the first three weeks of the season, he is 26-22 (.542).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 3 would have been 5-11 (.314). For the season, his record against the spread is 16-32 (.333).

All times are Pacific.

Steelers (2-1) at Browns (2-1)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 2 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Browns are solid, and even though the Buccaneers are not great, Cleveland beat them on the road and then beat an up-and-down Carolina team. The Steelers' defense played well in a big win over Cincinnati, but Pittsburgh is 1-6-1 in its last eight at Cleveland.

Pick: Browns 17, Steelers 14

Colts (1-2) at Commanders (1-2)

Sunday, at London, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Colts by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Colts found some confidence with a big divisional win over Houston, and the Texans, while struggling, are still talented. Huge win by the Commanders over Seattle last week, but that could be a little flukey. London games tend to be ugly and low-scoring.

Pick: Colts 24, Commanders 21

Rams (1-2) at Eagles (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

Case Keenum just beat the Eagles, and Matthew Stafford is a significant step up from that journeyman quarterback. Then again, the Eagles always bring their A-game for the Rams. It would be huge for the Rams if they could get star receiver Puka Nacua back and/or tight end Terrance Ferguson healthy.

Pick: Rams 27, Eagles 23

Patriots (1-2) at Bills (3-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 6 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Patriots have serious problems, and coach Mike Vrabel's news conference this week didn't inspire confidence. Quarterback Drake Maye has 19 turnovers in his last seven games. The Bills had a bad start last week but a strong finish.

Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 23

Jets (1-2) at Bears (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Bears look legit. Case Keenum reads the defense and gets the ball out fast; coach Ben Johnson's offense is strong, and the defense is generating turnovers. The Jets have played better but don't have enough here.

Pick: Bears 27, Jets 20

Jaguars (2-1) at Bengals (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 2 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

The Jaguars' defense is underrated but gave away a lead against the Broncos. Quarterback Joe Burrow keeps the Bengals rolling at home in what should be a game decided by turnovers.

Pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 23

Cardinals (1-2) at Giants (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Arizona is a tough out and doesn't go away, and tight end Trey McBride is a standout, but the team has too many defensive breakdowns. New York's defense should hold the Cardinals' offense in check, and Jameis Winston's play at quarterback and John Harbaugh's coaching tip the scales.

Pick: Giants 24, Cardinals 21

Packers (1-2) at Buccaneers (0-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 3 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Two shaky teams. Tampa Bay's offense has shown flashes, despite the struggles of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who's now injured and out, so rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start. Green Bay can't run the ball, which plays into Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles' pressure on Packers quarterback Jordan Love.

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Packers 20

Titans (0-3) at Ravens (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 11 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Ravens got an emotional boost with their win off the Cowboys' blunder, though they shouldn't have lost to the Saints in Week 2. The Ravens are too good at home; the Titans are improved but still struggling to move the ball.

Pick: Ravens 28, Titans 17

Cowboys (1-2) at Texans (0-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Cowboys have a porous defense, and the scheme just isn't paying dividends. Houston's offense is pretty good, and quarterback C.J. Stroud isn't the reason the Texans are losing.

Pick: Texans 24, Cowboys 20

Dolphins (0-3) at Vikings (3-0)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 10 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Vikings are finding different ways to win. The Dolphins are winless and can't score. Minnesota's defense under coordinator Brian Flores is tough to prepare for in a short week, and Miami lacks the personnel to keep up.

Pick: Vikings 28, Dolphins 17

Chargers (0-3) at Seahawks (2-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 7. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Chargers' offense looks disjointed, with a run scheme that doesn't fit the roster's personnel; there are real questions about new coordinator Mike McDaniel's job security. Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is back from a Week 1 injury and playing well behind a productive receiving corps.

Pick: Seahawks 28, Chargers 17

Chiefs (3-0) at Raiders (3-0)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Raiders haven't played the NFL's strongest schedule, but there's no denying they have improved. Tight end Travis Kelce looks like he's turned back the clock for Kansas City, which is running the ball well. The Raiders should stay competitive barring injuries.

Pick: Chiefs 28, Raiders 23

Broncos (2-1) at 49ers (3-0)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Denver had a big comeback win over the Rams, and its passing game is coming together, though the run game needs work. San Francisco is playing at a high level with George Kittle and Brock Purdy generating chunk plays.

Pick: 49ers 31, Broncos 27

Lions (2-1) at Panthers (1-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Lions by 3 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Detroit has scored 31 points in all three games, and Carolina has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball. Expect a high-scoring game, but sometimes when everything points to lots of touchdowns, it doesn't pan out that way.

Pick: Lions 35, Panthers 31

Falcons (1-2) at Saints (1-2)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Saints by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Atlanta's offense opened up with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback, and the defense seems to be coming around. New Orleans' Tyler Shough is developing and throwing the ball well, but the Falcons' defense should be the difference.

Pick: Falcons 28, Saints 24