Greg Cote's Thursday night NFL pick

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Sep 23, 2026

Published in Football

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 THURSDAY PICK

FALCONS (0-2) at PACKERS (1-1)

Line: GB by 5 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 24-17.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Prime Video.

Get used to the Packers, night owls. This is the first of a record five Green Bay home games in prime time this season. Thursday also is the Pack’s home opener, and the Gee Bees’ 36-14 record at Lambeau since 2020 is NFL’s third-best home mark. So, yeah, this is a home-field advantage that actually is. Jordan Love and crew haven’t been great through two games, but Atlanta arrives as medicine. Falcons have scored an NFL-low 16 points at 0-2 and are only team thus far to not enter the opponent’s red zone for even a single snap. The season debut of quarterback Michael Penix Jr., back from injury, will help but isn’t a quick fix. [New adage: If your QBs are Penix, Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush, you have no quarterback.] ATL’s offense revolves around RB Bijan Robinson, anyway, but Pack’s run-defense has been solid thus far. Falcons also have lost four straight trips to Lambeau, though the most recent was six years ago. One concern here: The season-ending injury to excellent Pack right tackle Zach Bako-Bewel heaps more pressure on Love. But still like GB riding a home bump to the cover.

(Note: Betting line courtesy DraftKings as of midday Wednesday.)