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Troy Renck: Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is an all-time great, but he hasn't been of late -- especially against Broncos

Troy Renck, The Denver Post on

Published in Football

DENVER — It is not time to donate Patrick Mahomes’ body to science fiction.

But can we have an honest discussion about how he has played the past two seasons?

Mahomes is an all-time great. But he has not played that way of late, especially against the Broncos.

Chiefs fans never hesitate to let Broncos Country know that Mahomes is undefeated against Denver at Arrowhead Stadium, a streak spanning seven games.

What they don’t like to admit is that the Broncos swept the Chiefs last season, and Bo Nix outplayed Mahomes in 2024 in Kansas City before a blocked field goal spoiled the upset.

Mahomes is a hard habit to break. He makes our eyes difficult to trust. But the reality is starting to crystallize.

This is the first year that he is no longer considered the game’s top quarterback, replaced by Buffalo’s Josh Allen in an ESPN poll of executives, coaches and scouts. The same Allen that Denver knocked out of the playoffs, in case you forgot.

So as hours, minutes and seconds inch toward a maniacal scene on Monday night, let’s provide some context.

Mahomes should be respected. But no longer feared.

Statistics, not opinions, explain why.

In Mahomes’ first six seasons as a starter, the Chiefs ranked first in scoring, total offense and plays of more than 20 yards. If you could not produce 30 points, you could not beat Kansas City as Mahomes threw passes without looking and others left-handed.

In the past two years, the Chiefs have ranked 23rd in scoring, 20th in total offense, and tied for 26th in big strikes.

During this span, Mahomes boasts 48 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. Nix has 54 and 23 — impressive, considering they represent his first two seasons.

Mahomes’ yards per attempt have sunk to 6.9 per attempt from 8.1 in 2022. The Chiefs are a different offense without Tyreek Hill. And Mahomes is a different quarterback, forced to settle for smaller chunks against endless two-high safety shell looks.

With a receiving corps that scares no one and tight end Travis Kelce not exactly aging like Benjamin Button, the timing is right for the most obvious truth.

The best way for the Broncos to win is to force Mahomes to beat them. Seriously.

The mere suggestion would have been laughable from 2018 to 2023, demanding LASIK surgery or an immediate drug test.

For years, a matchup like this would elicit pity for the Broncos. Now, there is curiosity, bordering on sympathy for Mahomes.

He enters his 10th season, nine months removed from ACL surgery on his left knee. If the timeline seems ambitious, it is. Mahomes has attacked his rehab with a monk’s devotion, and is known as a quick healer. Every athlete apparently is, save for Peyton Watson.

But the calendar is not working in Mahomes’ favor.

Will he evolve his style as he begins the second chapter of his career? Of course. Will that transition begin Monday night? Doubtful.

 

Why? Well, did you hear the news? Chiefs coach Andy Reid admitted there’s a “good chance” Josh Simmons will not play.

Mahomes has been forever brilliant. But below the headlines, lost in the fine print, there is a disclaimer. He is left-tackle dependent. When his blindside protector is out, he takes more chances, plays off script, commits more turnovers.

When Simmons played last season in nine games, the Chiefs averaged six more points. They were significantly better on third down. Undrafted rookie free agent Kahlil Benson, formerly of the University of Colorado and national champion Indiana, will replace him.

He is known as a run blocker. That leaves Reid two ways to protect the kid, if not Mahomes. Run Kenneth Walker like he is Larry Johnson circa 2006. Or position an extra tight end next to Benson, use a back to chip the edge and move the pocket to keep pass rushers Nik Bonitto and Co. off balance.

A mobile Mahomes used to be a danger to his opponents. Now, he is also a danger to himself. If the Chiefs want Mahomes to work outside the pocket, the Broncos should welcome this with open arms. And sticky fingers.

Just look at Mahomes’ last three games against the Broncos and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

He is 81 for 125 for a 64.8 completion percentage. He averages 260 yards, but only 6.22 per attempt. He has a meager four touchdowns with four interceptions.

And, yes, he runs into trouble. He has been sacked 10 times and only boasts 44 yards rushing.

This was before the knee injury.

While not the best place, this is the perfect time for the Broncos to face the Chiefs. Before Mahomes gets the engine revving. Before he returns to rhythm. Before he finds a balance between taking risks and taking care of the ball with his surgically repaired knee.

Could I look stupid for saying he is vulnerable? Even mortal? Yes. I risk having it thrown in my face.

But before planning your verbal missiles, Chiefs Kingdom, ask yourself this question: Who is Mahomes throwing to on Monday?

Kelce is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But he is a few weeks from turning 37 and is coming off his lowest catch total since 2015. Xavier Worthy is blurry fast, but quickly becoming a bust. He caught more than five passes once last season and has a single touchdown reception over his last 15 games.

Tyquan Thornton is a big play threat. But his career-high in catches is 22 set with the Patriots in 2022.

Looking at Mahomes’ options reminds me of watching John Elway in the early-to-mid 1990s. He had Shannon Sharpe but did not play with a Pro Bowl receiver until Anthony Miller in 1995.

As far as I can tell, the Chiefs’ plan is for Mahomes to throw on a red cape or Reid to undergo an offensive lobotomy and trust the outcome to Walker.

National experts want this game to be where Mahomes returns to his lofty perch and carries the Chiefs to victory.

From my lens, this game will show that he is not capable of such singular stardom without more help around him.

Everyone outside of Colorado wants a Mahomes blast from the past.

Instead, Monday will provide an unnerving look at the Chiefs’ future against Denver.


©2026 MediaNews Group, Inc. Visit at denverpost.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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