Sam Farmer's Week 1 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Last season, including playoffs, Sam Farmer posted a 181-104 record (.635).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread last season was 130-155 (.466). All team records shown below are from last season.

All times are Pacific.

Patriots (14-3) at Seahawks (14-3)

Wednesday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 3 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Drake Maye is entering Year 3, and New England's offense has more juice around him. Seattle's defense is intact, and traveling across three time zones to play in that loud stadium will be a challenge for the Patriots. The absence of Kenneth Walker III and a banged-up backfield hurt Seattle's ground game, but Sam Darnold looks like he's playing with real confidence now.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Patriots 20

49ers (12-5) vs. Rams (12-5)

Thursday, 5:35 p.m.

Line: Rams by 3 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

With Sean McVay's scheme and a healthy Matthew Stafford, don't expect much early-season rust. San Francisco is still bolting new pieces together, including fitting Mike Evans into the offense on the fly. Neither team has any track record for how a 15-hour flight to Australia plays out.

Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 23

Buccaneers (8-9) at Bengals (6-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 3 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Cincinnati has historically started seasons slowly with Joe Burrow at quarterback, and their offensive line remains the roster's soft spot. Tampa Bay's defense looks like vintage Todd Bowles again in the preseason, blitzing from multiple angles. If Baker Mayfield gets time, he plays well.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Bengals 24

Saints (6-11) at Lions (9-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 6 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Alvin Kamara sits out the opener, but New Orleans will still move the ball through the air. Detroit's defense should create turnovers, and Jahmyr Gibbs is in line for a big season. The Saints are still figuring out their identity, and that could show up as mistakes early.

Pick: Lions 30, Saints 20

Bills (12-5) at Texans (12-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Josh Allen gets a boost with DJ Moore in the mix, and James Cook gives Buffalo balance. But Houston's pass rush was one of the best units in the league last season, and how much of that carries over is the swing factor. It comes down to which version of C.J. Stroud shows up and whether the Texans can establish a run game.

Pick: Texans 24, Bills 21

Ravens (8-9) at Colts (8-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Daniel Jones is back from an Achilles tear, and recent history on that recovery timeline is mixed. Baltimore has a new voice in first-year coach Jesse Minter, and Lamar Jackson figures to play looser because of it. Indianapolis lost Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh in the offseason, thinning out the passing game.

Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 21

Falcons (8-9) at Steelers (10-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 3 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Aaron Rodgers fits Mike McCarthy's system better than he did Arthur Smith's with the Steelers last year. Pittsburgh has some new weapons. Atlanta starter Tua Tagovailoa has looked rough this preseason. Atlanta has the weapons to be a problem later this season, just maybe not in Week 1.

Pick: Steelers 24, Falcons 20

Bears (11-6) at Panthers (8-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Chicago went 7-4 in one-score games last year, and teams that lean on that kind of good fortune tend to regress the following season. Carolina added pieces and is trending up after a strong finish. Bears coach Ben Johnson believes in Caleb Williams to make late-game plays, but that well runs dry eventually.

Pick: Panthers 27, Bears 24

Browns (5-12) at Jaguars (13-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 8 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Cleveland's offense is a question mark regardless of who's under center, and the defense won't be the same without Myles Garrett, even with Michael Hall Jr. holding things down. Jacksonville looks like the more complete roster top to bottom.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Browns 13

Jets (3-14) at Titans (3-14)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Titans by 1 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

New York hasn't looked sharp in the preseason, and Breece Hall's early-season workload is uncertain. Tennessee has less experience at quarterback, and outside of Jeffery Simmons, there isn't much on that roster to rely on. Big upgrade in coaching experience for Tennessee, though, helps it pull through.

Pick: Titans 21, Jets 18

Cardinals (3-14) at Chargers (11-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 9 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Justin Herbert looks comfortable in the system of new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, even with the retooled footwork in shotgun. The two new tight ends and a fresh Omarion Hampton give Los Angeles more firepower. The Cardinals coaching staff is a wait-and-see proposition.

Pick: Chargers 27, Cardinals 20

Dolphins (7-10) at Raiders (3-14)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Raiders by 3 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Kirk Cousins gives Las Vegas a known commodity who knows the offense, even after a strong camp from No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. The Raiders added pieces on defense and get the game at home. Miami's ceiling on offense is still an open question.

Pick: Raiders 23, Dolphins 20

Packers (9-7-1) at Vikings (9-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 1 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Green Bay's defense remains strong, and the Packers are sturdy even without Josh Jacobs in the backfield. Kyler Murray is the wild card for Minnesota; if he plays within the system and gets the ball to his weapons, this game gets high scoring fast.

Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 21

Commanders (5-12) at Eagles (11-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 5 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Philadelphia has stayed quiet all offseason, and that's the scary part. The offensive line is healthy, and the receiver room got restocked even after losing A.J. Brown. Washington didn't do enough this offseason to close the gap, and Jayden Daniels' improvisational style still carries injury risk.

Pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 17

Cowboys (7-9-1) at Giants (4-13)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Jaxson Dart left the preseason on just his third offensive snap after New York's line failed to pick up a blitz, and that shakes confidence in the quarterback behind an uncertain front five. Dallas added pieces around Micah Parsons' departure, including Kenny Clark. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are a formidable combination. The Giants' defense is tough, but the offense isn't there yet.

Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 17

Broncos (14-3) at Chiefs (6-11)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Patrick Mahomes is coming off knee surgery, and Andy Reid will need to scheme around what he can't do yet, mainly moving out of the pocket on bootlegs. Denver's defense didn't lose anything from a year ago, and Sean Payton's addition of speed-threat Jaylen Waddle gives the Broncos a home-run element. Kansas City has flaws early that should sort themselves out later in the season.

Pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20